Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 28?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists11 × 1+11
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots80 × 0.1+8
- PIM102 × 0.05+5.1
- ice time (min)1704 × 0.01+17
- total47 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16647 = 28/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 47 points is 28 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.0% (951 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.8%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Jets | 40 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Jets | 70 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -9 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 59 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 57 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 78 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Canadiens | 69 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 3 | 2 | 130 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 41 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -16 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 54 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -18 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:34 | 1 | 1 | 96 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 20 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 76 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -31 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 77 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -4 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 81 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 82 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 2 | 11 | 13 | — | 83 | — | 0 | — | 19:49 | — | — | 90 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Dmitry Kulikov (2025-25) · Brandon Carlo (2025-25) · Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Jeremy Lauzon (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ STL | |||||
| P1 19:47 | EV | Assist | Copp (Chiarot, Raymond) → 1-0 | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk | Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter · Berggren · Neighbours · McTavish Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Mailloux Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ben over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider DET | 141 | 10 | |
| Emmitt Finnie DET | 66 | 10 | |
| Andrew Copp DET | 60 | 10 | |
| Lucas Raymond DET | 60 | 10 | |
| Alex DeBrincat DET | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats