Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots173 × 0.1+17.3
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1469 × 0.01+14.7
- total123 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242123 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 123 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.3 SOG/game lately vs 2.2 before — chances have dried up.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for PIT — missed 2 games (2026-10-22, 2026-10-24).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.1% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.4% (151 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.3%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 77 | 17 | 18 | 35 | -5 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 15:04 | 4 | 0 | 151 | 11.3% | 43.6% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:29 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 12.1% | 43.7% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 20 | 24 | 44 | — | 31 | — | 11 | — | 16:30 | — | — | 158 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 19 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ SJS | |||||
| P3 03:28 | PP | Goal | Kindel (Rakell, Karlsson) → 2-0 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Dewar · Lizotte · McGroarty · Kindel Karlsson · Girard · Korczak | Wennberg · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Nurse · Pohlkamp Askarov (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 05:10 | EV | Assist | Novak (Kindel) → 2-0 | Novak · Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Stastney · Carlile | Haula · Armia · Laughton · Turcotte · Lee · Connors Dumoulin · Gustafsson · Anderson · Clarke Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 08:38 | EV | Assist | Karlsson (Kindel, Malkin) → 1-2 | Malkin · Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Karlsson · Girard · Stastney · Korczak | Lee · Schmaltz · Keller · Yamamoto · Hayton · Guenther Schmidt · Weegar · Sergachev · Duda Cossa (G) |
| P3 19:35 | EV | Goal | Kindel (Malkin, Chinakhov) → 3-2 | Malkin · Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Girard · Korczak · Carlile | Trocheck · Schmaltz · Stenlund · Keller · McBain · Guenther · Cooley Schmidt · Peeke · Sergachev Cossa (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ben over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Chinakhov PIT | 85 | 8 | |
| Erik Karlsson PIT | 73 | 10 | |
| Kris Letang PIT | 65 | 10 | |
| Evgeni Malkin PIT | 58 | 9 | |
| Declan Carlile PIT | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats