Blake Lizotte
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 29?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM57 × 0.05+2.9
- ice time (min)1149 × 0.01+11.5
- total71 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24271 = 29/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 71 points is 29 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.0
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (554 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.6%, worth PD −3.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Kings | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2019-20 | Kings | 65 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -4 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:58 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 6.9% | 50.2% |
| 2020-21 | Kings | 41 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 7.1% | 50.8% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 70 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 15 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:10 | 2 | 0 | 91 | 11.0% | 51.6% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 81 | 11 | 23 | 34 | 11 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 10.2% | 51.2% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 62 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:49 | 2 | 0 | 76 | 9.2% | 46.8% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 59 | 11 | 9 | 20 | -4 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12:43 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 21.6% | 51.0% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 55 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:52 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% | 45.5% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 8 | 23 | 31 | — | 51 | — | 0 | — | 14:16 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mathieu Joseph (2025-25) · Samuel Blais (2023-23) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Radek Faksa (2025-25) · Kyle Turris (2020-20).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs BOS | |||||
| P2 07:57 | EV | Assist | #? (Korczak, Lizotte) → 2-3 | Dewar · Lizotte Stastney · Korczak | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Peterka Lohrei · Brunet DiPietro (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs FLA | |||||
| P3 17:34 | EV | Assist | Robertson (Dewar, Lizotte) → 4-0 | Robertson · Dewar · Lizotte Stastney · Karlsson | Tkachuk · Bennett · Reinhart · Lundell · Tkachuk Jones |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Blake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Dewar PIT | 106 | 10 | |
| Nick Robertson PIT | 77 | 10 | |
| Kaedan Korczak PIT | 61 | 10 | |
| Declan Carlile PIT | 60 | 10 | |
| Samuel Girard PIT | 40 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats