Braeden Bowman
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM71 × 0.05+3.6
- ice time (min)1100 × 0.01+11
- total98 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24298 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 98 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 11:42/game over the last 6, down 19% from 14:22 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.4% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.6% (75 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.9%, worth PD +1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 54 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -16 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14:08 | 2 | 0 | 75 | 10.7% | 25.0% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13:06 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 17 | 17 | 35 | — | 60 | — | 6 | — | 13:53 | — | — | 116 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 04:20 | EV | Goal | Bowman (Hertl, Olofsson) → 1-1 | Karlsson · Hertl · Olofsson · Marner · Howden · Bowman McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin · Coghlan | Copp · Kolesar · Dries · Raymond · Mazur · Brandsegg-Nygård Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson Tarasov (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 19:49 | PP | Goal | Bowman (Barbashev, Theodore) → 1-0 | Eichel · Bowman · Barbashev · Karlsson Lauzon · Theodore | Pinto · Stützle Zub · Sanderson Johansson (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P1 17:13 | EV | Assist | Hertl (Bowman, Connelly) → 1-1 | Connelly · Bowman · Hertl Hanifin · Coghlan | Fantilli · Nichushkin · Johnson Soucy · Gudbranson Talbot (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 18:30 | SH | Assist | Stone (Bowman) → 2-2 | Dowd · Stone · Bowman Hanifin · Lauzon | Cirelli · Holmberg · Goncalves · Geekie Carlson · D'Astous Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Braeden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd VGK | 61 | 10 | |
| Marc Gatcomb VGK | 60 | 9 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 55 | 10 | |
| Shea Theodore VGK | 54 | 10 | |
| Brayden McNabb VGK | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats