Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 93?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals40 × 3+120
- proj assists40 × 1+40
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots327 × 0.1+32.7
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1733 × 0.01+17.3
- total225 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242225 = 93/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 225 points is 93 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.7% shooting on 70 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.4% (1024 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (10.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.6%, worth PD +0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Blackhawks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blackhawks | 52 | 9 | 15 | 24 | -7 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13:59 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 9.9% | 39.1% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 55 | 21 | 16 | 37 | -14 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 17:28 | 3 | 0 | 94 | 22.3% | 38.7% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 22 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:35 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 12.9% | 46.2% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 81 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 23 | 54 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 18:39 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 16.9% | 28.4% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 82 | 26 | 49 | 75 | 1 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19:15 | 3 | 1 | 184 | 14.1% | 41.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 82 | 35 | 55 | 90 | 33 | 58 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 20:45 | 4 | 0 | 228 | 15.4% | 34.8% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 71 | 36 | 38 | 74 | 34 | 58 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 19:46 | 6 | 0 | 214 | 16.8% | 41.3% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20:35 | 2 | 0 | 76 | 17.1% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 40 | 40 | 80 | — | 29 | — | 15 | — | 18:27 | — | — | 240 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25) · Brandon Hagel (2025-25) · Kyle Connor (2025-25) · Brady Tkachuk (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P1 02:57 | EV | Goal | #? (D'Astous, Kucherov) → 1-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel Carlson · D'Astous | Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| P3 01:06 | EV | Assist | Guentzel (Hagel, Carlson) → 2-1 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Hagel Carlson · D'Astous | Nichushkin · Johnson · Fantilli Provorov · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| P3 07:41 | EV | Goal | #? (Guentzel, Kucherov) → 3-1 | Kucherov · Guentzel McDonagh · Crozier | Coyle · Johnson · Knies Provorov · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P2 04:33 | EV | Goal | #? (Cirelli, Carlson) → 3-0 | Kucherov · Cirelli Carlson · D'Astous | Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Timmins · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| P3 01:25 | EV | Assist | #? (Hagel, #?) → 5-3 | Hagel · O'Reilly Hedman · Moser | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Power · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) · Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brandon over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli TBL | 120 | 9 | |
| Nikita Kucherov TBL | 83 | 10 | |
| Victor Hedman TBL | 65 | 10 | |
| John Carlson TBL | 64 | 10 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats