Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots102 × 0.1+10.2
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1152 × 0.01+11.5
- total76 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24276 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 76 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.7% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.9% (373 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.3%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Wild | 35 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9:54 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 4.5% | 46.6% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 81 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -5 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10:58 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 6.9% | 44.1% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 57 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:17 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 17.5% | 46.9% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 45.8% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 31 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0.0% | 43.0% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 17 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 14.8% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 78 | 14 | 16 | 30 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:55 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 12.7% | 47.4% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8.7% | 34.2% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 12 | 17 | 29 | — | 28 | — | 0 | — | 14:17 | — | — | 120 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Phillip Di Giuseppe (2023-23) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Nils Hoglander (2025-25) · Max Jones (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs NSH | |||||
| P2 00:18 | EV | Goal | Dewar (Soderblom) → 1-1 | Robertson · Dewar · Soderblom Stastney · Karlsson | Wood · O'Reilly · Stamkos Wilsby · Josi Saros (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 15:19 | EV | Assist | Robertson (Dewar, Letang) → 1-0 | Robertson · Dewar · Soderblom Solovyov · Letang | Tkachuk · Bennett · Tkachuk Kulikov · Balinskis Black (G) |
| P3 17:34 | EV | Assist | Robertson (Dewar, Lizotte) → 4-0 | Robertson · Dewar · Lizotte Stastney · Karlsson | Tkachuk · Bennett · Reinhart · Lundell · Tkachuk Jones |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Connor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Lizotte PIT | 106 | 10 | |
| Nick Robertson PIT | 68 | 10 | |
| Kaedan Korczak PIT | 57 | 10 | |
| Declan Carlile PIT | 52 | 10 | |
| Samuel Girard PIT | 48 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats