Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals35 × 3+105
- proj assists105 × 1+105
- PP points84 × 0.5+42
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots231 × 0.1+23.1
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1993 × 0.01+19.9
- total296 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242296 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 296 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +5.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 20.0% shooting on 55 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.3% (2357 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.5%, worth PD +5.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Oilers | 45 | 16 | 32 | 48 | -1 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 18:53 | 5 | 1 | 105 | 15.2% | 41.2% |
| 2016-17 | Oilers | 82 | 30 | 70 | 100 | 27 | 26 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 21:08 | 6 | 1 | 251 | 11.9% | 43.2% |
| 2017-18 | Oilers | 82 | 41 | 67 | 108 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 21:33 | 7 | 2 | 274 | 15.0% | 41.4% |
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 78 | 41 | 75 | 116 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 22:50 | 9 | 3 | 240 | 17.1% | 46.6% |
| 2019-20 | Oilers | 64 | 34 | 63 | 97 | -6 | 28 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 21:52 | 6 | 0 | 212 | 16.0% | 47.8% |
| 2020-21 | Oilers | 56 | 33 | 72 | 105 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 22:09 | 11 | 2 | 200 | 16.5% | 49.5% |
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 80 | 44 | 79 | 123 | 28 | 45 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 22:04 | 9 | 4 | 314 | 14.0% | 53.7% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 82 | 64 | 89 | 153 | 22 | 36 | 21 | 71 | 4 | 22:23 | 11 | 2 | 352 | 18.2% | 51.9% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 76 | 32 | 100 | 132 | 35 | 30 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 21:22 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 12.2% | 51.1% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 67 | 26 | 74 | 100 | 20 | 37 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 22:02 | 3 | 0 | 196 | 13.3% | 47.7% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 82 | 48 | 90 | 138 | 17 | 44 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 22:59 | 4 | 1 | 306 | 15.7% | 49.5% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 11 | 38 | 49 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 23:44 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 20.0% | 47.6% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 35 | 105 | 140 | — | 27 | — | 66 | — | 20:31 | — | — | 196 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Nikita Kucherov (2025-25) · Connor McDavid (2025-25) · Nathan MacKinnon (2025-25) · Leon Draisaitl (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 14:03 | PP | Assist | Hyman (McDavid, Bouchard) → 2-0 | Hyman · Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid · Dach Ekholm · Bouchard | Couturier · Konecny · Acciari · Zegras · Foerster Seeler · Ristolainen · Sanheim · York Vladar (G) |
| Nov 9 · vs NYR | |||||
| P1 06:42 | EV | Goal | McDavid → 1-0 | Hyman · Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid · Podkolzin Ekholm · Murphy · Shea · Bouchard | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider Garand (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 09:14 | EV | Assist | Ekholm (McDavid, Draisaitl) → 1-0 | Hyman · Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid · Podkolzin Ekholm · Murphy · Shea · Bouchard | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Cotter · Bains · Lekkerimaki Oleksiak · Brisebois · Hronek · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| P3 04:00 | PP | Assist | Draisaitl (McDavid, Bouchard) → 3-1 | Hyman · Dickinson · Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid · Joseph · Formenton Bouchard · Emberson · Mukhamadullin | Boeser · Pettersson · Karlsson · O'Connor · Sasson Oleksiak · Brisebois · Hronek · Pettersson Merilainen (G) |
| P3 19:15 | EV | Assist | Draisaitl (McDavid, Hyman) → 4-2 | Hyman · Dickinson · Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid · Podkolzin Murphy · Shea · Emberson · Mukhamadullin | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Karlsson · O'Connor · Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Sasson Brisebois · Hronek · Buium Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Connor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl EDM | 204 | 10 | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM | 185 | 10 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin EDM | 138 | 10 | |
| Mattias Ekholm EDM | 133 | 10 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats