Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points14 × 0.5+7
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots121 × 0.1+12.1
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1296 × 0.01+13
- total101 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242101 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 101 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for STL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.7% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (666 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.6%, worth PD −1.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 68 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 8.6% | 42.9% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 80 | 18 | 15 | 33 | -20 | 34 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:59 | 3 | 0 | 135 | 13.3% | 42.4% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 82 | 26 | 31 | 57 | 19 | 49 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16:49 | 5 | 0 | 177 | 14.7% | 46.8% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 78 | 14 | 32 | 46 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16:54 | 5 | 1 | 142 | 9.9% | 42.9% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 19 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:32 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 39.3% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 13 | 29 | 42 | — | 23 | — | 9 | — | 15:20 | — | — | 131 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Zach Benson (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ NJD | |||||
| P3 14:54 | EV | Assist | Dvorsky (McMichael) → 4-4 | Buchnevich · Thomas · McMichael · Holloway · Snuggerud · Dvorsky Fowler · Parayko · Barron | Mantha · Meier · Rodrigues · Hischier · Boqvist · Evangelista Hamilton · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BOS | |||||
| P2 05:17 | EV | Assist | Broberg (McMichael, Holloway) → 2-1 | Buchnevich · Berggren · McMichael · Holloway · McTavish · Dvorsky Carlo · Broberg · Barron · Jiricek | Lindholm · Mittelstadt · Kastelic · Poitras · Hagens Lindholm · Clifton · McAvoy · Lohrei Swayman (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs VGK | |||||
| P1 10:00 | PP | Assist | Buchnevich (Berggren, McMichael) → 1-0 | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish · Buchnevich Fowler | Howden · Bowman McNabb · Lauzon Hill (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Connor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish STL | 69 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 58 | 10 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 55 | 10 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich STL | 54 | 9 | |
| Jonatan Berggren STL | 52 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats