Connor Murphy
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists10 × 1+10
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots92 × 0.1+9.2
- PIM130 × 0.05+6.5
- ice time (min)1763 × 0.01+17.6
- total49 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16649 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 49 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.0% (749 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.6%, worth PD −1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Coyotes | 30 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Coyotes | 73 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -27 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Coyotes | 78 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:31 | 1 | 0 | 101 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 77 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -13 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:11 | 1 | 1 | 81 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 76 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blackhawks | 52 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 1 | 0 | 84 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blackhawks | 58 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blackhawks | 50 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:09 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 57 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -14 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blackhawks | 80 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -10 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:23 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blackhawks | 46 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -19 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 68 | 2 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 60 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 2 | 10 | 12 | — | 102 | — | 0 | — | 20:16 | — | — | 97 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Dmitry Kulikov (2025-25) · Jeremy Lauzon (2025-25) · Brandon Carlo (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Brett Pesce (2025-25).
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Connor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Shea EDM | 174 | 10 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen EDM | 80 | 10 | |
| Alex Formenton EDM | 55 | 10 | |
| Colton Dach EDM | 55 | 7 | |
| Owen Michaels EDM | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats