Dylan Larkin
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots269 × 0.1+26.9
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1822 × 0.01+18.2
- total146 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242146 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 146 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (10 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 8 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 8 of 16 for DET — missed 8 games (2026-11-05, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −5.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.3% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (2016 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.9%, worth PD −5.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Red Wings | 80 | 23 | 22 | 45 | 11 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16:33 | 5 | 0 | 221 | 10.4% | 41.0% |
| 2016-17 | Red Wings | 80 | 17 | 15 | 32 | -28 | 37 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 16:09 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 9.6% | 45.4% |
| 2017-18 | Red Wings | 82 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -9 | 61 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 19:51 | 4 | 0 | 232 | 6.9% | 49.9% |
| 2018-19 | Red Wings | 76 | 32 | 41 | 73 | -6 | 75 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 21:51 | 4 | 4 | 287 | 11.2% | 54.5% |
| 2019-20 | Red Wings | 71 | 19 | 34 | 53 | -21 | 39 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 21:15 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 8.5% | 52.4% |
| 2020-21 | Red Wings | 44 | 9 | 14 | 23 | -14 | 34 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 20:24 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 6.7% | 49.5% |
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 71 | 31 | 38 | 69 | -18 | 47 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 19:39 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 14.6% | 52.3% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 80 | 32 | 47 | 79 | -7 | 45 | 16 | 31 | 1 | 19:33 | 5 | 0 | 244 | 13.1% | 54.4% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 68 | 33 | 36 | 69 | 5 | 39 | 14 | 26 | 2 | 20:10 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 14.9% | 55.4% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 82 | 30 | 40 | 70 | -16 | 40 | 13 | 27 | 0 | 20:04 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 12.8% | 54.5% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 74 | 34 | 33 | 67 | 3 | 48 | 14 | 24 | 1 | 20:11 | 9 | 4 | 229 | 14.8% | 52.9% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:41 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 6.3% | 53.4% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 19 | 30 | 49 | — | 39 | — | 24 | — | 18:08 | — | — | 193 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Joel Eriksson Ek (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Jonathan Marchessault (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 6 of 8 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | @ EDM | Goal | 18:43 · P3 · EV | Larkin (Raymond, Seider) → 3-3 | Raymond · Arvidsson · Finnie · Larkin · DeBrincat Seider | Draisaitl · Podkolzin · McDavid Murphy · Shea Jarry (G) |
| Oct 20 | @ SEA | Assist | 07:24 · P3 · PP | Raymond (DeBrincat, Larkin) → 2-3 | Raymond · Arvidsson · Larkin · DeBrincat Seider | Meyers · Gaudreau Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| Oct 20 | @ SEA | Assist | 19:43 · P3 · PP | #? (Larkin, Raymond) → 3-3 | Raymond · Arvidsson · Finnie · Larkin Seider | Beniers · McCann Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| Oct 15 | vs PHI | Assist | 04:31 · P2 · EV | #? (Larkin, Faulk) → 1-1 | Raymond · Larkin Chiarot · Seider · Faulk | Michkov · Bunting · Tippett Drysdale · Bonk Woll (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 7 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond DET | 120 | 7 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson DET | 114 | 7 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 99 | 7 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 50 | 7 | |
| Alex DeBrincat DET | 36 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats