Emmitt Finnie
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 59?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1554 × 0.01+15.5
- total142 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242142 = 59/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 142 points is 59 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 9.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.5% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (120 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.4%, worth PD +3.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 82 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15:30 | 1 | 0 | 120 | 10.8% | 44.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:38 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 16.3% | 48.2% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 27 | 22 | 48 | — | 28 | — | 9 | — | 17:13 | — | — | 162 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P3 19:57 | EV | Goal | #? (Seider) → 5-3 | Rasmussen · Dries Englund · Seider | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs STL | |||||
| P3 03:29 | PP | Goal | #? (Raymond, Seider) → 4-2 | Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Raymond Seider | Thomas · McMichael Carlo · Broberg Hofer (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 16:45 | EV | Assist | Arvidsson (Finnie) → 4-1 | Arvidsson · Finnie · DeBrincat Wallinder · Faulk | Bertuzzi · Kantserov · Teravainen · Kane · Nazar · Bedard |
| Oct 26 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 04:48 | EV | Goal | #? (Arvidsson) → 2-2 | Arvidsson · DeBrincat Englund · Johansson | Joseph · Formenton · Michaels Murphy · Shea Jarry (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Emmitt over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat DET | 159 | 10 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson DET | 108 | 10 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 95 | 10 | |
| Justin Faulk DET | 68 | 10 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats