Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals31 × 3+93
- proj assists66 × 1+66
- PP points50 × 0.5+25
- game-winning goals13 × 0.5+6.5
- OT goals8 × 0.25+2
- shots218 × 0.1+21.8
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)2154 × 0.01+21.5
- total237 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166237 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 237 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +14.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 21.2% shooting on 52 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.2% (929 shots before this season) — that's 7.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.7 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.7%, worth PD +14.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His regular linemates run hot too (McDavid 20.0%, Draisaitl 23.1%, Ekholm 13.6%, Podkolzin 22.5%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Oilers | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 81 | 12 | 31 | 43 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19:48 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 82 | 8 | 32 | 40 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 18:31 | 2 | 1 | 156 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 81 | 18 | 64 | 82 | 34 | 32 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 23:00 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 82 | 14 | 53 | 67 | 14 | 32 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 23:28 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 82 | 21 | 74 | 95 | 25 | 30 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 24:41 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 25:39 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 31 | 66 | 98 | — | 28 | — | 40 | — | 23:11 | — | — | 172 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Cale Makar (2025-25) · Evan Bouchard (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Quinn Hughes (2025-25) · Adam Fox (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 14:03 | PP | Assist | Hyman (McDavid, Bouchard) → 2-0 | Hyman · Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid · Dach Ekholm · Bouchard | Couturier · Konecny · Acciari · Zegras · Foerster Seeler · Ristolainen · Sanheim · York Vladar (G) |
| P4 00:47 | EV | Goal | Bouchard (Draisaitl) → 3-2 | Draisaitl · McDavid Bouchard | Cates · Michkov Drysdale Vladar (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 04:00 | PP | Assist | Draisaitl (McDavid, Bouchard) → 3-1 | Hyman · Dickinson · Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid · Joseph · Formenton Bouchard · Emberson · Mukhamadullin | Boeser · Pettersson · Karlsson · O'Connor · Sasson Oleksiak · Brisebois · Hronek · Pettersson Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 19:41 | PP | Goal | Bouchard (McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins) → 1-1 | Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid · Hallander · Dach Walman · Bouchard · Mukhamadullin | Killorn · Colangelo · Myatovic · Washe Helleson · Luneau · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P3 19:15 | EV | Assist | Draisaitl (McDavid, Bouchard) → 4-5 | Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid · Dach Ekholm · Shea · Bouchard | Granlund · Malott · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Mintyukov · Warren Brossoit (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Evan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid EDM | 185 | 10 | |
| Leon Draisaitl EDM | 182 | 10 | |
| Mattias Ekholm EDM | 166 | 10 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin EDM | 127 | 10 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen EDM | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats