Evgeni Malkin
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 74?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals28 × 3+84
- proj assists48 × 1+48
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots183 × 0.1+18.3
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1466 × 0.01+14.7
- total180 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242180 = 74/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 180 points is 74 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 13.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.7/10 season baseline.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for PIT — missed 2 games (2026-10-24, 2026-11-03).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 40 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.2% shooting on 37 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.6% (1510 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.6%, worth PD +1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-07 | Penguins | 78 | 33 | 52 | 85 | 2 | 80 | 16 | 40 | 0 | 19:10 | 6 | 1 | 242 | 13.6% | 43.3% |
| 2007-08 | Penguins | 82 | 47 | 59 | 106 | 16 | 78 | 17 | 40 | 0 | 21:19 | 5 | 0 | 272 | 17.3% | 39.3% |
| 2008-09 | Penguins | 82 | 35 | 78 | 113 | 17 | 80 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 22:31 | 4 | 2 | 290 | 12.1% | 42.4% |
| 2009-10 | Penguins | 67 | 28 | 49 | 77 | -6 | 100 | 13 | 28 | 2 | 20:51 | 7 | 2 | 268 | 10.4% | 40.0% |
| 2010-11 | Penguins | 43 | 15 | 22 | 37 | -4 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 19:49 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 8.2% | 38.5% |
| 2011-12 | Penguins | 75 | 50 | 59 | 109 | 18 | 70 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 21:01 | 9 | 1 | 339 | 14.8% | 47.5% |
| 2012-13 | Penguins | 31 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 5 | 36 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 19:42 | 3 | 0 | 99 | 9.1% | 47.2% |
| 2013-14 | Penguins | 60 | 23 | 49 | 72 | 10 | 62 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 20:04 | 3 | 0 | 191 | 12.0% | 48.8% |
| 2014-15 | Penguins | 69 | 28 | 42 | 70 | -2 | 60 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 18:58 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 13.2% | 42.6% |
| 2015-16 | Penguins | 57 | 27 | 31 | 58 | 1 | 65 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 19:22 | 6 | 2 | 162 | 16.7% | 42.0% |
| 2016-17 | Penguins | 62 | 33 | 39 | 72 | 18 | 77 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 18:37 | 6 | 1 | 191 | 17.3% | 43.1% |
| 2017-18 | Penguins | 78 | 42 | 56 | 98 | 16 | 87 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 18:59 | 7 | 2 | 239 | 17.6% | 43.7% |
| 2018-19 | Penguins | 68 | 21 | 51 | 72 | -25 | 89 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 18:48 | 5 | 0 | 187 | 11.2% | 45.7% |
| 2019-20 | Penguins | 55 | 25 | 49 | 74 | 7 | 58 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 19:31 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 14.6% | 50.3% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 33 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -4 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 17:44 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 11.1% | 42.5% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 41 | 20 | 22 | 42 | -10 | 24 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 18:20 | 5 | 1 | 129 | 15.5% | 43.6% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 82 | 27 | 56 | 83 | -12 | 82 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 18:35 | 3 | 0 | 240 | 11.3% | 49.3% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 82 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 5 | 70 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 18:35 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 13.6% | 48.6% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 68 | 16 | 34 | 50 | -24 | 42 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 17:47 | 3 | 1 | 125 | 12.8% | 45.8% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 56 | 19 | 42 | 61 | 13 | 61 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 17:36 | 3 | 0 | 148 | 12.8% | 44.5% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 17 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17:27 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 16.2% | 36.4% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 28 | 48 | 76 | — | 41 | — | 23 | — | 16:31 | — | — | 163 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 40 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mark Stone (2025-25) · Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 08:57 | EV | Assist | Girard (Malkin, Letang) → 1-0 | Malkin · Brazeau · Dewar · Lizotte · Koivunen · McGroarty Letang · Girard · Korczak | Ostapchuk · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Kesselring · Pohlkamp · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 08:05 | PP | Assist | Letang (Malkin, Karlsson) → 1-4 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Girard · Korczak | Granlund · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke · McQueen LaCombe · Luneau · Warren · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P3 13:42 | PP | Assist | Rakell (Crosby, Malkin) → 2-4 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Girard · Korczak | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Carlsson Helleson · Luneau · Mintyukov · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 19:31 | PP | Assist | Chinakhov (Koivunen, Malkin) → 3-1 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Brazeau · Chinakhov · Koivunen · Kindel Letang · Karlsson | Haula · Armia · Laughton · Moore Doughty · Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
| P2 17:13 | EV | Assist | Crosby (Malkin, Karlsson) → 4-2 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Brazeau · Lapierre · Koivunen Karlsson · Girard · Stastney · Korczak | Perry · Haula · Armia · Moore · Byfield · Connors Doughty · Edmundson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Evgeni over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang PIT | 75 | 10 | |
| Erik Karlsson PIT | 75 | 10 | |
| Sidney Crosby PIT | 73 | 10 | |
| Ben Kindel PIT | 65 | 10 | |
| Rickard Rakell PIT | 64 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats