Filip Hronek
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 64?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists44 × 1+44
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots92 × 0.1+9.2
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)2213 × 0.01+22.1
- total106 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166106 = 64/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 106 points is 64 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.4% (1010 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.2%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Red Wings | 46 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -10 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19:58 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Red Wings | 65 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -38 | 46 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 23:54 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Red Wings | 56 | 2 | 24 | 26 | -18 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 23:23 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 78 | 5 | 33 | 38 | -29 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22:02 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 60 | 9 | 29 | 38 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 21:32 | 1 | 0 | 122 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 81 | 5 | 43 | 48 | 33 | 38 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 23:26 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 61 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 23:54 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 6.0% | 100.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 82 | 8 | 41 | 49 | -23 | 33 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 25:00 | 1 | 0 | 137 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 20 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 26:21 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 5 | 44 | 50 | — | 17 | — | 23 | — | 23:37 | — | — | 98 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Seth Jones (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Filip Hronek (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 17:25 | EV | Assist | #? (Hronek, Pettersson) → 2-3 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Hronek | Hyman · Draisaitl · McDavid Murphy · Shea Levi (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 10:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Hronek, Lekkerimaki) → 1-1 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · Lekkerimaki Hronek | Sissons · Blueger Tanev · McCabe Stolarz (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 18:56 | EV | Assist | Ohgren (Hronek) → 2-0 | Rossi · Bains · Ohgren Hronek · Pettersson | Dellandrea · Bystedt · Stenberg Orlov · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 18:03 | EV | Assist | Lekkerimäki (Pettersson, Hronek) → 5-5 | Boeser · Pettersson · DeBrusk · Chytil · Lekkerimäki Hronek | Killorn · Sennecke · Granlund LaCombe · Helleson Dostal (G) |
| P4 04:49 | PP | Goal | Hronek (Boeser, Lekkerimäki) → 6-5 | Boeser · Bains · O'Connor · Rossi · Pettersson · Cotter · Sasson · DeBrusk · Chytil · Lekkerimäki · Ohgren · Karlsson Oleksiak · Willander · Buium · Hronek · Pettersson · Mancini | Colangelo · Killorn · Washe · Sennecke · Granlund LaCombe Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Filip over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 137 | 10 | |
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 125 | 10 | |
| Brock Boeser VAN | 123 | 10 | |
| Jake DeBrusk VAN | 104 | 10 | |
| Jonathan Lekkerimaki VAN | 87 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats