Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals26 × 3+78
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots104 × 0.1+10.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1313 × 0.01+13.1
- total121 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242121 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 121 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +7.2
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 38.1% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (632 shots before this season) — that's 5.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.2%, worth PD +7.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Winterton 8.3%, Larsson 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Predators | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:40 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 20 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:10 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0% | 49.6% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 55 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 7.0% | 48.3% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 19 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 10.0% | 53.7% |
| 2021-22 | Wild | 76 | 14 | 30 | 44 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:19 | 4 | 1 | 132 | 10.6% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 82 | 19 | 19 | 38 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:03 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 13.8% | 49.3% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 67 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -23 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 13:57 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 4.8% | 49.9% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 82 | 18 | 19 | 37 | -2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15:40 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 16.4% | 48.2% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 68 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -1 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:09 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 10.0% | 43.5% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 17 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 38.1% | 50.5% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 26 | 17 | 43 | — | 19 | — | 2 | — | 15:27 | — | — | 123 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Jack Roslovic (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25) · Tyson Foerster (2025-25) · Bobby McMann (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs CAR | |||||
| P3 13:15 | EV | Goal | Gaudreau (Samoskevich) → 1-4 | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Samoskevich · Nyman · Meyers · Wood Larsson · Dunn · Mahura · Ottavainen | Hall · Jankowski · Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi · Jarvis Gostisbehere · Slavin · Chatfield · Valimaki Bussi (G) |
| Oct 30 · @ CGY | |||||
| P1 11:34 | EV | Goal | Gaudreau (Samoskevich, Stephenson) → 1-1 | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Kakko · Samoskevich · Wright · Catton Montour · Evans | Strome · Frost · Pospisil · Sharangovich · Suniev · Gridin Middleton · Whitecloud · Kuznetsov · Parekh Wolf (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs TOR | |||||
| P2 00:16 | EV | Assist | Mahura (Meyers, Gaudreau) → 2-1 | Winterton · Meyers · Gaudreau Fleury · Mahura | MacEwen · Duhaime · Blueger Stecher · Rielly Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 19:00 | EV | Goal | Gaudreau → 5-3 | Stephenson · McMann · Gaudreau Evans · Montour | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Trocheck · Cooley Sergachev |
| Oct 17 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 19:05 | EV | Goal | Gaudreau (Larsson) → 2-6 | Stephenson · Gaudreau · McCann · Samoskevich · Winterton · Meyers Larsson · Mahura | Bennett · Lafferty · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Kulikov · Jones · Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Frederick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Meyers SEA | 91 | 10 | |
| Ryan Winterton SEA | 82 | 10 | |
| Adam Larsson SEA | 73 | 10 | |
| Ryker Evans SEA | 62 | 10 | |
| Vince Dunn SEA | 60 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats