Jack Hughes
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals34 × 3+102
- proj assists61 × 1+61
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals18 × 0.5+9
- OT goals13 × 0.25+3.3
- shots336 × 0.1+33.6
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1752 × 0.01+17.5
- total244 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242244 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 244 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 22:30/game over the last 6, up 16% from 19:25 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.8% shooting on 76 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.4% (1497 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.7%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Devils | 61 | 7 | 14 | 21 | -26 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 15:52 | 2 | 1 | 123 | 5.7% | 36.1% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 56 | 11 | 20 | 31 | -3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19:04 | 1 | 0 | 142 | 7.7% | 35.4% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 49 | 26 | 30 | 56 | -16 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 19:34 | 2 | 2 | 165 | 15.8% | 34.6% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 78 | 43 | 56 | 99 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 19:58 | 6 | 1 | 336 | 12.8% | 35.3% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 62 | 27 | 47 | 74 | -12 | 12 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 20:58 | 4 | 2 | 274 | 9.9% | 37.2% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 62 | 27 | 43 | 70 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 20:54 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 11.8% | 37.6% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 61 | 27 | 50 | 77 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 21:19 | 5 | 1 | 228 | 11.8% | 34.8% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 20:51 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 12.7% | 36.1% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 34 | 61 | 95 | — | 18 | — | 29 | — | 18:39 | — | — | 248 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25) · Jack Eichel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WSH | |||||
| P3 19:15 | EV | Goal | Hughes (Gritsyuk, Bratt) → 5-2 | Bratt · Glass · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Hameenaho Hamilton · Chisholm · Kolyachonok · Hughes | Tuch · Strome · Beauvillier · Kyrou · Dubois · Sourdif · Leonard · Protas Liljegren · Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ WPG | |||||
| P2 01:14 | EV | Assist | Bratt (Gritsyuk, Hughes) → 1-2 | Brown · Rodrigues · Bratt · Glass · Hughes · Gritsyuk Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Kovacevic · Chisholm | Scheifele · Connor · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager · Björck Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer Daws (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 12:44 | EV | Assist | Meier (Hughes, Bratt) → 2-0 | Brown · Meier · Bratt · Hughes · Gritsyuk Pesce · Hughes | Tavares · Sissons · Blueger · Duhaime · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · Raddysh · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| P3 09:49 | PP | Assist | Hischier (Hughes, Bratt) → 3-0 | Brown · Bratt · Glass · Hischier · Boqvist · Hughes · Lombardi Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Hughes | Tavares · Blueger · Paul · Nylander · MacEwen McCabe · Mermis · Stecher · McWard Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P3 13:42 | PP | Assist | Hamilton (Hughes, Evangelista) → 4-4 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Hischier · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton · Pesce · Hughes | Cizikas · Horvat · MacLean · Holmstrom · Chaffee Hutton · Stanley · Kessel · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt NJD | 162 | 10 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk NJD | 127 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 98 | 10 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 71 | 10 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats