Jacob Trouba
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points12 × 0.5+6
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots136 × 0.1+13.6
- PIM92 × 0.05+4.6
- ice time (min)1870 × 0.01+18.7
- total92 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16692 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 92 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.4/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.9% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.2% (1353 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.8%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Jets | 65 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 22:26 | 1 | 1 | 121 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Jets | 65 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 2 | 46 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 23:19 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Jets | 81 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 22:04 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 60 | 8 | 25 | 33 | 4 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 24:58 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 55 | 3 | 21 | 24 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:54 | 2 | 0 | 144 | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 82 | 8 | 42 | 50 | 8 | 58 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 22:53 | 1 | 1 | 162 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Rangers | 70 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -12 | 61 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 22:34 | 1 | 0 | 168 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 38 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:29 | 1 | 0 | 70 | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 81 | 11 | 28 | 39 | 25 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 22:26 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 82 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 7 | 63 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 21:12 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 69 | 3 | 19 | 22 | -4 | 73 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:15 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 24 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 53 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -5 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 81 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -1 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:50 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -5 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:16 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 7 | 28 | 35 | — | 77 | — | 5 | — | 21:06 | — | — | 123 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25) · Aaron Ekblad (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 · vs CGY | |||||
| P3 11:57 | EV | Assist | Dickinson (Misa, Trouba) → 1-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Celebrini · Graf · Misa · Stenberg Trouba · Nurse · Kesselring · Dickinson | Strome · Pospisil · Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna · Gridin Bahl · Kuznetsov · Nemec · Parekh Wolf (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs OTT | |||||
| P1 16:06 | EV | Assist | Misa (Trouba, Sherwood) → 1-1 | Marchment · Sherwood · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Allan · Dickinson | Cousins · Batherson · Tomasino · Pinto · Bourgault · Halliday Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo Ersson (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ BOS | |||||
| P1 05:54 | PP | Assist | Misa (Toffoli, Trouba) → 1-1 | Sherwood · Toffoli · Misa · Gaudette Trouba | Jeannot · Minten Lindholm · McAvoy Swayman (G) |
| P3 12:27 | EV | Assist | Smith (Trouba, Celebrini) → 4-5 | Smith · Celebrini Nurse · Trouba | Lindholm · Khusnutdinov Lindholm · McAvoy Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jacob over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Dickinson SJS | 146 | 10 | |
| Macklin Celebrini SJS | 73 | 10 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood SJS | 65 | 10 | |
| Will Smith SJS | 65 | 10 | |
| Collin Graf SJS | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats