Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points14 × 0.5+7
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots191 × 0.1+19.1
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1422 × 0.01+14.2
- total124 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242124 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 124 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.2% shooting on 41 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.7% (1500 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.5%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Bruins | 70 | 16 | 27 | 43 | 13 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 14:22 | 5 | 0 | 143 | 11.2% | 43.3% |
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 68 | 27 | 15 | 42 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 16:10 | 4 | 0 | 156 | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| 2019-20 | Bruins | 65 | 19 | 16 | 35 | -1 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 16:03 | 5 | 0 | 161 | 11.8% | 34.6% |
| 2020-21 | Bruins | 41 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:54 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 5.4% | 40.0% |
| 2021-22 | Bruins | 77 | 25 | 17 | 42 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15:02 | 8 | 2 | 184 | 13.6% | 45.5% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 64 | 27 | 23 | 50 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16:47 | 6 | 0 | 191 | 14.1% | 26.7% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 80 | 19 | 21 | 40 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 16:50 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 10.4% | 30.4% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 82 | 28 | 20 | 48 | -15 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 16:39 | 4 | 2 | 171 | 16.4% | 37.9% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 81 | 23 | 19 | 42 | -31 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 16:52 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 10.5% | 42.4% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 18 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:56 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 12.2% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 20 | 23 | 43 | — | 23 | — | 20 | — | 16:14 | — | — | 168 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Jack Roslovic (2025-25) · Ryan Hartman (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs ANA | |||||
| P3 05:30 | PP | Goal | DeBrusk (Pettersson, Boeser) → 3-5 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Karlsson · O'Connor · Lekkerimaki · Quillan Oleksiak · Hronek · Buium | Granlund · Malott · Carlsson · Myatovic · Washe LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P3 09:34 | EV | Goal | DeBrusk (Oleksiak, Pettersson) → 4-5 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Karlsson · O'Connor · Quillan Oleksiak · Pettersson · Buium | Granlund · Malott · Gauthier · Myatovic · Sennecke · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 25 · vs MIN | |||||
| P3 16:53 | EV | Assist | Boeser (Pettersson, DeBrusk) → 2-4 | Boeser · Pettersson · DeBrusk Hronek · Pettersson | Trenin · Hartman · Shabanov Brodin · Hughes Pickard (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs CAR | |||||
| P1 10:10 | EV | Assist | Karlsson (Pettersson, DeBrusk) → 1-1 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Chytil · Karlsson · Cotter Hronek · Pettersson | Carrier · Ehlers · Aho · Svechnikov · Stankoven · Blake Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
| P1 19:58 | PP | Assist | Lekkerimaki (DeBrusk, Boeser) → 2-2 | Gallagher · Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Bains · Lekkerimaki · Sasson Schenn · Oleksiak · Hronek | Ehlers · Aho · Stankoven · Blake Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 140 | 10 | |
| Filip Hronek VAN | 104 | 10 | |
| Brock Boeser VAN | 93 | 10 | |
| Jonathan Lekkerimaki VAN | 87 | 10 | |
| Zeev Buium VAN | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats