Jake Guentzel
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 90?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals37 × 3+111
- proj assists46 × 1+46
- PP points37 × 0.5+18.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots224 × 0.1+22.4
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1756 × 0.01+17.6
- total219 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242219 = 90/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 219 points is 90 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.8% shooting on 48 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.5% (1849 shots before this season) — that's 2.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.5 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.9%, worth PD +5.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Kucherov 14.3%, Point 13.9%, D'Astous 12.0%, Carlson 14.6%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Penguins | 40 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:53 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 19.8% | 47.1% |
| 2017-18 | Penguins | 82 | 22 | 26 | 48 | -9 | 42 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 16:29 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 12.9% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | Penguins | 82 | 40 | 36 | 76 | 13 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 19:21 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 17.6% | 33.3% |
| 2019-20 | Penguins | 39 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 20:38 | 4 | 1 | 127 | 15.7% | 47.8% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 56 | 23 | 34 | 57 | 7 | 28 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 20:16 | 7 | 1 | 141 | 16.3% | 25.0% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 76 | 40 | 44 | 84 | 13 | 44 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 20:06 | 7 | 1 | 264 | 15.2% | 52.0% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 78 | 36 | 37 | 73 | 2 | 46 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 20:07 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 14.8% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 50 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 20:53 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 11.9% | 27.8% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 17 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 17:30 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 80 | 41 | 39 | 80 | 18 | 24 | 17 | 28 | 1 | 20:00 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 18.9% | 46.1% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 81 | 38 | 50 | 88 | 13 | 61 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 20:15 | 5 | 2 | 220 | 17.3% | 47.8% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 20:56 | 2 | 0 | 51 | 21.6% | 33.1% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 37 | 46 | 83 | — | 29 | — | 32 | — | 18:37 | — | — | 188 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25) · Kyle Connor (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P3 01:06 | EV | Goal | Guentzel (Hagel, Carlson) → 2-1 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Hagel Carlson · D'Astous | Coyle · Nichushkin · Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Provorov · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| P3 07:41 | EV | Assist | Hagel (Guentzel, Kucherov) → 3-1 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Hagel McDonagh · Carlson · D'Astous · Crozier | Coyle · Olivier · Johnson · Sillinger · Knies · Fantilli Provorov · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P1 18:49 | EV | Assist | Sabourin (Geekie, Guentzel) → 1-0 | Girgensons · Sabourin · Guentzel · Holmberg · Mikheyev · Geekie Carlson · Hedman · D'Astous · Moser | Zucker · McLeod · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Timmins · Power · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) |
| P1 19:38 | PP | Assist | Carlson (Guentzel, D'Astous) → 2-0 | Kucherov · Girgensons · Guentzel · Holmberg · Mikheyev · O'Reilly McDonagh · Carlson · Cernak · D'Astous | Malenstyn · Thompson · Norris · Krebs · Kozak Timmins · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| P2 13:02 | EV | Assist | Gourde (Guentzel, O'Reilly) → 4-0 | Gourde · Sabourin · Guentzel · Viel · Geekie · O'Reilly Carlson · Hedman · D'Astous · Moser | Zucker · Norris · McLeod · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund Timmins · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power Luukkonen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov TBL | 139 | 10 | |
| Brayden Point TBL | 121 | 8 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous TBL | 119 | 10 | |
| John Carlson TBL | 100 | 10 | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats