Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 69?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists56 × 1+56
- PP points27 × 0.5+13.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots195 × 0.1+19.5
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1479 × 0.01+14.8
- total167 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242167 = 69/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 167 points is 69 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.1% shooting on 44 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (1127 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.3%, worth PD −3.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Devils | 74 | 13 | 22 | 35 | -16 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 15:15 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 13.0% | 63.6% |
| 2018-19 | Devils | 51 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 15:10 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 8.8% | 57.1% |
| 2019-20 | Devils | 60 | 16 | 16 | 32 | -6 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13:59 | 2 | 0 | 101 | 15.8% | 23.1% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 46 | 7 | 23 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16:05 | 1 | 1 | 101 | 6.9% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 76 | 26 | 47 | 73 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 17:26 | 6 | 0 | 197 | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 82 | 32 | 41 | 73 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 17:22 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 82 | 27 | 56 | 83 | -6 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 19:18 | 7 | 0 | 248 | 10.9% | 36.4% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 81 | 21 | 67 | 88 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 18:57 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 82 | 22 | 49 | 71 | -11 | 12 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 18:46 | 4 | 1 | 178 | 12.4% | 27.3% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17:34 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 20 | 56 | 77 | — | 18 | — | 23 | — | 16:40 | — | — | 171 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mitch Marner (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25) · Mikko Rantanen (2025-25) · Jesper Bratt (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WSH | |||||
| P3 19:15 | EV | Assist | Hughes (Gritsyuk, Bratt) → 5-2 | Bratt · Glass · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Hameenaho Hamilton · Chisholm · Kolyachonok · Hughes | Tuch · Strome · Beauvillier · Kyrou · Dubois · Sourdif · Leonard · Protas Liljegren · Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ WPG | |||||
| P2 01:14 | EV | Goal | Bratt (Gritsyuk, Hughes) → 1-2 | Brown · Rodrigues · Bratt · Glass · Hughes · Gritsyuk Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Kovacevic · Chisholm | Scheifele · Connor · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager · Björck Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer Daws (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 12:44 | EV | Assist | Meier (Hughes, Bratt) → 2-0 | Brown · Meier · Bratt · Hughes · Gritsyuk Pesce · Hughes | Tavares · Sissons · Blueger · Duhaime · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · Raddysh · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| P3 09:49 | PP | Assist | Hischier (Hughes, Bratt) → 3-0 | Brown · Bratt · Glass · Hischier · Boqvist · Hughes · Lombardi Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Hughes | Tavares · Blueger · Paul · Nylander · MacEwen McCabe · Mermis · Stecher · McWard Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 04:42 | EV | Assist | Chisholm (Bratt, Gritsyuk) → 2-2 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Bratt · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk Kovacevic · Chisholm | Palmieri · Palat · Pageau · Duclair · Horvat · Holmstrom Hutton · Stanley · Kessel · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jesper over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes NJD | 162 | 10 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk NJD | 113 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 81 | 10 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 59 | 10 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats