John Carlson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 90?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points23 × 0.5+11.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots191 × 0.1+19.1
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1638 × 0.01+16.4
- total150 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166150 = 90/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 150 points is 90 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.3 SOG/game lately vs 2.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 13.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 4.4/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.0
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 14.6% shooting on 41 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.9% (1554 shots before this season) — that's 3.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.0%, worth PD +6.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (D'Astous 12.0%, Kucherov 14.3%, Guentzel 20.8%, Point 13.9%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Capitals | 22 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2010-11 | Capitals | 82 | 7 | 30 | 37 | 21 | 44 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22:39 | 3 | 0 | 144 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Capitals | 82 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -15 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 21:52 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Capitals | 48 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23:01 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 6.2% | 100.0% |
| 2013-14 | Capitals | 82 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -3 | 22 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 24:31 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Capitals | 82 | 12 | 43 | 55 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 23:04 | 3 | 0 | 193 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Capitals | 56 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 23:42 | 4 | 1 | 124 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Capitals | 72 | 9 | 28 | 37 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 22:43 | 3 | 0 | 180 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Capitals | 82 | 15 | 53 | 68 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 24:47 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Capitals | 80 | 13 | 57 | 70 | 21 | 34 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 25:04 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Capitals | 69 | 15 | 60 | 75 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 24:38 | 6 | 0 | 189 | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 52 | 10 | 34 | 44 | -5 | 12 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 23:47 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 78 | 17 | 54 | 71 | 13 | 20 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 23:49 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 40 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -7 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 23:23 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 82 | 10 | 42 | 52 | -7 | 40 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 25:54 | 5 | 0 | 176 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 79 | 5 | 46 | 51 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 23:34 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 55 | 10 | 36 | 46 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 22:52 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 16 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 24:11 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 19:18 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 21 | 37 | 58 | — | 24 | — | 17 | — | 19:20 | — | — | 152 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Rasmus Dahlin (2025-25) · Zach Werenski (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Adam Fox (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P3 01:06 | EV | Assist | Guentzel (Hagel, Carlson) → 2-1 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Hagel Carlson · D'Astous | Coyle · Nichushkin · Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Provorov · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P1 19:38 | PP | Goal | Carlson (Guentzel, D'Astous) → 2-0 | Kucherov · Girgensons · Guentzel · Holmberg · Mikheyev · O'Reilly McDonagh · Carlson · Cernak · D'Astous | Malenstyn · Thompson · Norris · Krebs · Kozak Timmins · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| P2 04:33 | EV | Assist | Hagel (Cirelli, Carlson) → 3-0 | Kucherov · Gourde · Guentzel · Cirelli · Hagel · O'Reilly McDonagh · Carlson · Cernak · D'Astous | Zucker · McLeod · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Timmins · Power · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) |
| P3 01:25 | EV | Assist | Kucherov (Hagel, #?) → 5-3 | Kucherov · Gourde · Guentzel · Hagel · O'Reilly Hedman · Moser | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kozak · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) · Ellis (G) |
| P3 04:11 | EV | Assist | Kucherov (Carlson, Cirelli) → 6-3 | Kucherov · Cirelli · Hagel McDonagh · Carlson · D'Astous · Moser | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kozak · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with John over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous TBL | 122 | 10 | |
| Nikita Kucherov TBL | 116 | 10 | |
| Jake Guentzel TBL | 100 | 10 | |
| Brayden Point TBL | 69 | 8 | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 64 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats