Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1203 × 0.01+12
- total88 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24288 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 88 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.7/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for STL — missed 2 games (2026-11-05, 2026-11-07).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.7% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.0% (258 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.1%, worth PD −2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 67 | 15 | 13 | 28 | -14 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 13:28 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 15.3% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 75 | 12 | 12 | 24 | -13 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12:59 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 13.6% | 29.4% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 36 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:35 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 15.8% | 60.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blues | 17 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:09 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blues | 84 | 12 | 17 | 28 | — | 31 | — | 6 | — | 14:41 | — | — | 138 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Rudolfs Balcers (2021-21) · Collin Graf (2025-25) · Kyle Turris (2020-20) · Rem Pitlick (2022-22) · Lucas Wallmark (2019-19).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · vs VGK | |||||
| P1 10:00 | PP | Assist | Buchnevich (Berggren, McMichael) → 1-0 | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish · Buchnevich Fowler | Howden · Bowman McNabb · Lauzon Hill (G) |
| Oct 15 · @ MIN | |||||
| P1 01:45 | PP | Goal | Berggren (Fowler, Dvorsky) → 1-0 | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish · Dvorsky Fowler · Parayko · Barron | McCarron · Ek · Trenin · Yurov · Shabanov Bogosian · Brodin · Kiersted · Spacek Wallstedt (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jonatan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish STL | 107 | 10 | |
| Connor McMichael STL | 76 | 9 | |
| Philip Broberg STL | 50 | 10 | |
| Cam Fowler STL | 49 | 10 | |
| Colton Parayko STL | 43 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats