Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points29 × 0.5+14.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots122 × 0.1+12.2
- PIM55 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)1527 × 0.01+15.3
- total122 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242122 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 122 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.2% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (951 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD +2.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Nugent-Hopkins 21.1%, Murphy 0.0%, Dach 10.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Maple Leafs | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 38 | 7 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:15 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 12.7% | 14.3% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 78 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16:37 | 3 | 1 | 174 | 11.5% | 50.0% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 69 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 15:47 | 2 | 1 | 121 | 10.7% | 13.3% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 40 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15:32 | 3 | 1 | 68 | 16.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 79 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 14:32 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 8.5% | 41.7% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 43 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -8 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12:02 | 2 | 0 | 69 | 10.1% | 26.7% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 23 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:45 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 17.0% | 40.6% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 73 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:23 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 6.1% | 34.2% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 57 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -16 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 9.1% | 42.9% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 41 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 18:11 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 17.2% | 40.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 18 | 21 | 39 | — | 50 | — | 12 | — | 17:03 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · @ NJD | |||||
| P2 18:16 | PP | Assist | #? (Bouchard, Kapanen) → 2-3 | Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid Bouchard | Brown · Glass Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| P3 01:00 | PP | Assist | #? (Kapanen, McDavid) → 3-3 | Nugent-Hopkins · Kapanen · McDavid Bouchard | Brown · Gritsyuk Pesce · Siegenthaler Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 08:42 | EV | Assist | #? (Kapanen) → 1-0 | Kapanen · Dach Emberson · Mukhamadullin | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom DeAngelo · Stanley Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs CGY | |||||
| P3 00:55 | PP | Goal | Kapanen (McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins) → 3-0 | Draisaitl · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins · McDavid Bouchard | Backlund · Sharangovich Whitecloud · Middleton Wolf (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 04:18 | PP | Assist | Howard (Kapanen, Dach) → 2-1 | Frederic · Dach · Kapanen · Howard Shea | Rasmussen · Larkin Wallinder · Faulk Postava (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kasperi over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Shea EDM | 92 | 10 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM | 87 | 7 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 80 | 10 | |
| Colton Dach EDM | 65 | 7 | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats