Mason Lohrei
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 46?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots79 × 0.1+7.9
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1501 × 0.01+15
- total76 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16676 = 46/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 76 points is 46 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.6% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.2% (207 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.5%, worth PD +1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Peterka 13.2%, Minten 17.1%, Pastrnak 12.5%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 41 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -2 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:57 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 77 | 5 | 28 | 33 | -43 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 19:32 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 73 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 17 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16:54 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 11 | 18 | 29 | — | 18 | — | 3 | — | 18:21 | — | — | 90 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jake Walman (2025-25) · Denton Mateychuk (2025-25) · Mason Lohrei (2025-25) · Olen Zellweger (2025-25) · Sean Durzi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 13:06 | EV | Goal | #? (Peterka, #?) → 3-4 | Kuraly · Kastelic · Peterka Borgen | Greenway · Smith · Greene Mastro · Rinzel Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mason over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frederic Brunet BOS | 81 | 7 | |
| JJ Peterka BOS | 67 | 10 | |
| Fraser Minten BOS | 67 | 10 | |
| David Pastrnak BOS | 49 | 10 | |
| Morgan Geekie BOS | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats