Mavrik Bourque
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 33?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points6 × 0.5+3
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots174 × 0.1+17.4
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1358 × 0.01+13.6
- total80 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24280 = 33/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 80 points is 33 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 11 of 15 for NSH — missed 4 games (2026-10-10, 2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-10-17).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −8.0
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — a discount on real process. The underlying shot numbers say his trade value should climb.
- 0.0% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.5% (229 shots before this season) — that's 4.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.2 expected goals). WAY under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.9%, worth PD −8.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- The shots are there and the finishing isn't — that gap usually closes. Production from his stat line is likely better than it looks from here.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 73 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12:41 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 13.8% | 46.3% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 82 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 15:29 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 13.6% | 45.3% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 15 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0.0% | 41.5% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 8 | 21 | 29 | — | 26 | — | 5 | — | 15:43 | — | — | 156 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Turris (2020-20) · Collin Graf (2025-25) · Mackie Samoskevich (2025-25) · Rudolfs Balcers (2021-21) · Cole Koepke (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | @ ANA | Assist | 16:04 · P3 · EV | Stamkos (Bourque, Josi) → 4-2 | Bourque · O'Reilly · Stamkos Wilsby · Josi | Sennecke · Gauthier · Granlund LaCombe · Helleson Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 7 | vs STL | Assist | 16:07 · P1 · PP | Stamkos (Bourque, Josi) → 1-1 | Bourque · O'Reilly · Stamkos Josi | Toropchenko · Suter Broberg · Parayko Hofer (G) |
| Oct 25 | vs COL | Assist | 10:48 · P1 · EV | Stamkos (O'Reilly, Bourque) → 2-0 | Bourque · O'Reilly · Stamkos Perbix · Josi · Skjei | Svechkov · Hughes · Schwartz Makar · Kulak Wedgewood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mavrik over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos NSH | 103 | 10 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly NSH | 101 | 10 | |
| Roman Josi NSH | 95 | 10 | |
| Adam Wilsby NSH | 67 | 10 | |
| Brady Skjei NSH | 34 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats