Michael McCarron
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots150 × 0.1+15
- PIM62 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1149 × 0.01+11.5
- total95 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24295 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 16 of 17 for MIN — missed 1 game (2026-11-07).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.8% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.0% (391 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.6%, worth PD −0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Canadiens | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 2.4% | 50.3% |
| 2016-17 | Canadiens | 31 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3.2% | 43.4% |
| 2017-18 | Canadiens | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:46 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0% | 48.8% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 42.9% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 51 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10:23 | 2 | 0 | 51 | 13.7% | 54.4% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 32 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5.1% | 59.4% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 70 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 4 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 3 | 0 | 94 | 12.8% | 53.2% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 74 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -21 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 1 | 0 | 80 | 6.3% | 54.4% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 59 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -15 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:30 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 5.8% | 52.8% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 20 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:40 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 13.0% | 51.4% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 20 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 11.4% | 46.8% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 14 | 21 | 35 | — | 54 | — | 0 | — | 14:16 | — | — | 144 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Vasily Podkolzin (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Wayne Simmonds (2021-21) · Marat Khusnutdinov (2025-25) · Nils Hoglander (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 07:34 | EV | Goal | McCarron (Coleman, Yurov) → 4-2 | Foligno · Foligno · Coleman · McCarron · Hartman · Brink · Yurov Bogosian · Spurgeon · Maatta | Paul · Nylander · Roslovic · Matthews · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Mermis · Raddysh · McWard Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 04:37 | EV | Goal | McCarron (Coleman, Brink) → 2-0 | Coleman · McCarron · Trenin · Brink · Yurov · Shabanov Bogosian · Maatta | Tippett · Cates · Foerster · Barkey · Michkov · Martone Seeler · Benoit · York · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ WSH | |||||
| P1 05:27 | EV | Goal | McCarron (Coleman, Brink) → 2-0 | Coleman · McCarron · Trenin · Brink · Yurov · Shabanov Maatta · Kiersted · Spacek | Ovechkin · Tuch · Strome · Beauvillier · Kyrou · Protas Liljegren · Fehervary · Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 05:54 | EV | Assist | Brink (McCarron) → 2-0 | Brink · Coleman · McCarron Hughes · Spurgeon | Chytil · Lekkerimäki · Ohgren Schenn · Brisebois Meriläinen (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ CGY | |||||
| P3 04:39 | EV | Goal | McCarron (Sturm, Brodin) → 1-2 | Pitlick · McCarron · Sturm Brodin · Hughes | Castagna · Klapka · Othmann Kuznetsov · Nemec Cooley (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Michael over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman MIN | 80 | 10 | |
| Bobby Brink MIN | 64 | 10 | |
| Zach Bogosian MIN | 56 | 10 | |
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 50 | 10 | |
| Olli Maatta MIN | 46 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats