Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots222 × 0.1+22.2
- PIM30 × 0.05+1.5
- ice time (min)1541 × 0.01+15.4
- total93 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24293 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 93 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for CGY — missed 2 games (2026-10-22, 2026-10-24).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 37 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.4% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 8.3% (1764 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.6%, worth PD −3.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | Flames | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| 2009-10 | Flames | 23 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 2.1% | 53.4% |
| 2010-11 | Flames | 73 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12:05 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 6.9% | 48.0% |
| 2011-12 | Flames | 41 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 15:23 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 4.7% | 45.4% |
| 2012-13 | Flames | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -6 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15:07 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 9.1% | 47.7% |
| 2013-14 | Flames | 76 | 18 | 21 | 39 | 4 | 32 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 18:32 | 3 | 1 | 178 | 10.1% | 47.5% |
| 2014-15 | Flames | 52 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:45 | 2 | 1 | 103 | 9.7% | 48.3% |
| 2015-16 | Flames | 82 | 21 | 26 | 47 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 16:26 | 4 | 2 | 155 | 13.6% | 47.2% |
| 2016-17 | Flames | 81 | 22 | 31 | 53 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 17:36 | 7 | 2 | 197 | 11.2% | 48.1% |
| 2017-18 | Flames | 82 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -21 | 78 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 19:01 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 6.5% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 77 | 21 | 26 | 47 | 34 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17:54 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 10.2% | 49.6% |
| 2019-20 | Flames | 70 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 17:57 | 3 | 0 | 157 | 10.2% | 47.3% |
| 2020-21 | Flames | 54 | 9 | 23 | 32 | -7 | 30 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 17:36 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 6.3% | 51.9% |
| 2021-22 | Flames | 82 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 17:07 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 5.6% | 50.5% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 82 | 19 | 37 | 56 | 24 | 36 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 18:10 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 7.3% | 50.9% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 82 | 15 | 24 | 39 | -4 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 19:14 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 7.2% | 50.3% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 76 | 15 | 17 | 32 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 18:44 | 3 | 0 | 175 | 8.6% | 48.4% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 82 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17:57 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 9.1% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 17 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 4.4% | 49.1% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 12 | 18 | 30 | — | 35 | — | 2 | — | 17:02 | — | — | 183 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 37 that is -8%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jason Dickinson (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Nic Dowd (2025-25) · Lars Eller (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · @ COL | |||||
| P2 10:50 | EV | Assist | Farabee (Backlund) → 1-4 | Backlund · Frost · Farabee · Sharangovich · Coronato · Suniev Middleton · Whitecloud · Bahl · Nemec | Kadri · Schwartz · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas · Hughes Kulak · Toews · Makar · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P2 10:40 | EV | Assist | Farabee (Backlund, Coronato) → 4-1 | Backlund · Farabee · Coronato · Klapka · Castagna · Tsyplakov Middleton · Whitecloud · Kuznetsov · Nemec | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Douglas · Samoskevich · Winterton · Meyers Larsson · Montour · Mahura · Evans Grubauer (G) · Daccord (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 11:50 | EV | Goal | Backlund (Coronato, Farabee) → 2-0 | Backlund · Coronato · Farabee Bahl · Nemec | Matthews · Cowan · Roslovic McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mikael over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee CGY | 138 | 10 | |
| Matt Coronato CGY | 103 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 88 | 10 | |
| Jacob Middleton CGY | 78 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats