Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 89?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals36 × 3+108
- proj assists48 × 1+48
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM79 × 0.05+4
- ice time (min)1682 × 0.01+16.8
- total215 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242215 = 89/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 215 points is 89 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for DAL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 26.5% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.9% (1837 shots before this season) — that's 3.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 19.7%, worth PD +6.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Johnston 7.1%, Harley 5.9%, Robertson 16.4%, Heiskanen 11.5%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Avalanche | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 54.2% |
| 2016-17 | Avalanche | 75 | 20 | 18 | 38 | -25 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 18:03 | 2 | 1 | 133 | 15.0% | 58.0% |
| 2017-18 | Avalanche | 81 | 29 | 55 | 84 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 18:58 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 16.3% | 51.3% |
| 2018-19 | Avalanche | 74 | 31 | 56 | 87 | 13 | 54 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 20:51 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 16.1% | 37.0% |
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 42 | 19 | 22 | 41 | -2 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 18:57 | 5 | 0 | 107 | 17.8% | 58.7% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 52 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 30 | 34 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 19:55 | 7 | 0 | 177 | 16.9% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 75 | 36 | 56 | 92 | 35 | 56 | 16 | 35 | 0 | 20:59 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 14.2% | 46.3% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 82 | 55 | 50 | 105 | 15 | 82 | 13 | 37 | 0 | 22:13 | 9 | 3 | 306 | 18.0% | 49.0% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 80 | 42 | 62 | 104 | 19 | 50 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 22:54 | 9 | 0 | 271 | 15.5% | 53.8% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 49 | 25 | 39 | 64 | 12 | 28 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 22:30 | 5 | 0 | 135 | 18.5% | 53.3% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:49 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 5.0% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 20 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 19:07 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 13.5% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 64 | 22 | 55 | 77 | 0 | 93 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 20:11 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 15.8% | 44.0% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 18 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19:54 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 26.5% | 48.5% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 36 | 48 | 84 | — | 64 | — | 34 | — | 18:01 | — | — | 158 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 16:51 | PP | Assist | #? (Rantanen, Harley) → 3-1 | Rantanen · Hintz · Johnston Harley | Goodrow · Dellandrea Trouba · Nurse Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P2 14:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Johnston, Rantanen) → 4-2 | Rantanen · Robertson · Johnston · Hryckowian | Goodrow · Graf Trouba · Nurse Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P3 06:27 | EV | Goal | #? (Johnston) → 1-0 | Benn · Johnston Lundkvist · Harley | Lomberg · Voronkov · Belluz Provorov · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P2 14:50 | EV | Goal | #? (Johnston, #?) → 5-1 | Kiviranta · Johnston Myers · Harley | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Chychrun · Ivany Lindgren (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 02:16 | PP | Goal | #? (Johnston, Robertson) → 1-0 | Hintz · Robertson · Johnston Heiskanen | Coyle · Monahan Gudbranson · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mikko over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston DAL | 128 | 8 | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | 84 | 10 | |
| Jason Robertson DAL | 78 | 10 | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL | 68 | 7 | |
| Roope Hintz DAL | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats