Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 79?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists39 × 1+39
- PP points17 × 0.5+8.5
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots146 × 0.1+14.6
- PIM56 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)2091 × 0.01+20.9
- total131 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166131 = 79/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 131 points is 79 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 23:44/game over the last 6, down 15% from 27:52 earlier in the season.
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 0.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Did not play the last 3 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 11 of 14 for DAL — missed 3 games (2026-11-05, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-12).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 11.5% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.8% (1090 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.5 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.5%, worth PD +2.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Robertson 16.4%, Rantanen 26.5%, Hintz 21.9%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Stars | 82 | 12 | 21 | 33 | -14 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 23:07 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Stars | 68 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 23:46 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Stars | 55 | 8 | 19 | 27 | -9 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 24:58 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Stars | 70 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 3 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 24:53 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 79 | 11 | 62 | 73 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 25:29 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 71 | 9 | 45 | 54 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 24:32 | 2 | 0 | 162 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 50 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 25:10 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 77 | 9 | 54 | 63 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 25:28 | 3 | 1 | 148 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 15 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:53 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 14 | 39 | 53 | — | 53 | — | 25 | — | 22:18 | — | — | 126 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Charlie McAvoy (2025-25) · Miro Heiskanen (2025-25) · Mikhail Sergachev (2025-25) · Dougie Hamilton (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 19:59 | EV | Assist | Harley (Hyry, Heiskanen) → 2-0 | Benn · Perron · Hyry Heiskanen · Harley | Coyle · Nichushkin · Sillinger Gudbranson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| P3 19:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Benn, Heiskanen) → 3-1 | Benn · Hintz Lindell · Heiskanen | Coyle · Monahan · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs MTL | |||||
| P1 12:53 | PP | Assist | Johnston (Rantanen, Heiskanen) → 1-1 | Rantanen · Hintz · Robertson · Johnston Heiskanen | Dach · Newhook Carrier · Guhle Dobes (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs WPG | |||||
| P4 03:47 | EV | Assist | Hintz (Heiskanen, Robertson) → 3-2 | Benn · Blackwell · Steel · Robertson · Kiviranta · Hintz · Hyry · Hryckowian · Johnston · Seguin · Rantanen Heiskanen · Lundkvist · Bichsel · Capobianco · Harley · Myers | Lowry · Björck · Connor Pionk · Fleury Skinner (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs BOS | |||||
| P4 03:52 | PP | Assist | Rantanen (Heiskanen, Robertson) → 3-2 | Rantanen · Robertson · Johnston Heiskanen | Lindholm Zadorov · McAvoy Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Miro over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esa Lindell DAL | 123 | 8 | |
| Jason Robertson DAL | 100 | 10 | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL | 98 | 10 | |
| Roope Hintz DAL | 91 | 10 | |
| Wyatt Johnston DAL | 76 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats