Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots115 × 0.1+11.5
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1217 × 0.01+12.2
- total92 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24292 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 92 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.0 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 8.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.2/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.5% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.5% (424 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.8%, worth PD +0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 59.5% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 8.3% | 41.7% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 70 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13:15 | 2 | 0 | 112 | 7.1% | 44.8% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 80 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:30 | 3 | 0 | 94 | 11.7% | 46.3% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 74 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:23 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 8.7% | 52.1% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 65 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:48 | 2 | 0 | 93 | 11.8% | 46.2% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 50.7% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 15 | 20 | 35 | — | 33 | — | 2 | — | 14:45 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Nils Hoglander (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Rudolfs Balcers (2021-21) · Cody Glass (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P3 15:26 | EV | Assist | Koepke (Barron) → 8-3 | Iafallo · Barron · Koepke · Björck Samberg · Bauer | Perron · Seguin · Faksa · Steel · Kiviranta · Hryckowian Lundkvist · Harley DeSmith (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 12:38 | EV | Goal | Barron (Pionk, Björck) → 2-0 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Barron · Björck Fleury · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer | Gourde · Viel · Holmberg · Geekie McDonagh · Cernak · D'Astous · Crozier Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 04:03 | EV | Assist | Koepke (Barron) → 2-0 | Lowry · Iafallo · Barron · Koepke · Rosén · Björck DeMelo · Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Ohgren Oleksiak · Hronek · Pettersson · Mancini Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ MTL | |||||
| P3 18:03 | EV | Goal | Barron (Bauer, DeMelo) → 2-4 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Barron · Koepke DeMelo · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer · Salomonsson | Danault · Anderson · Evans · Texier · Newhook · Bolduc Carrier · Guhle · Xhekaj · Hutson Fowler (G) |
| P3 19:27 | PP | Assist | Connor (Scheifele, Barron) → 4-4 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Iafallo · Barron · Mercer · Perfetti Samberg · Pionk | Danault · Evans · Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Dobson · Guhle · Hutson Fowler (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Morgan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Koepke WPG | 71 | 9 | |
| Dylan Samberg WPG | 54 | 10 | |
| Mario Ferraro WPG | 49 | 10 | |
| Neal Pionk WPG | 49 | 10 | |
| Dylan DeMelo WPG | 48 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats