Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals38 × 3+114
- proj assists70 × 1+70
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots305 × 0.1+30.5
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1736 × 0.01+17.4
- total254 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242254 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 254 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 4.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +4.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.5% shooting on 69 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.9% (2913 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.3%, worth PD +4.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Avalanche | 82 | 24 | 39 | 63 | 20 | 26 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 17:21 | 5 | 0 | 241 | 10.0% | 42.9% |
| 2014-15 | Avalanche | 64 | 14 | 24 | 38 | -7 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17:03 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 7.3% | 47.0% |
| 2015-16 | Avalanche | 72 | 21 | 31 | 52 | -4 | 20 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 18:52 | 6 | 0 | 245 | 8.6% | 48.4% |
| 2016-17 | Avalanche | 82 | 16 | 37 | 53 | -14 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 19:57 | 4 | 2 | 251 | 6.4% | 50.6% |
| 2017-18 | Avalanche | 74 | 39 | 58 | 97 | 11 | 55 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 19:54 | 12 | 3 | 284 | 13.7% | 41.9% |
| 2018-19 | Avalanche | 82 | 41 | 58 | 99 | 20 | 34 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 22:05 | 6 | 1 | 365 | 11.2% | 43.7% |
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 69 | 35 | 58 | 93 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 31 | 0 | 21:13 | 4 | 2 | 318 | 11.0% | 43.1% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 48 | 20 | 45 | 65 | 22 | 37 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 20:22 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 9.7% | 48.5% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 65 | 32 | 56 | 88 | 22 | 42 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 21:04 | 5 | 1 | 299 | 10.7% | 45.4% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 71 | 42 | 69 | 111 | 29 | 30 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 22:19 | 9 | 2 | 366 | 11.5% | 44.4% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 82 | 51 | 89 | 140 | 35 | 42 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 22:49 | 9 | 2 | 405 | 12.6% | 46.2% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 79 | 32 | 84 | 116 | 25 | 41 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 22:47 | 5 | 1 | 320 | 10.0% | 49.9% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 80 | 53 | 74 | 127 | 57 | 39 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 22:16 | 7 | 1 | 350 | 15.1% | 51.0% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 20:13 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 14.1% | 50.7% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 38 | 70 | 108 | — | 49 | — | 32 | — | 18:33 | — | — | 231 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Connor McDavid (2025-25) · Nathan MacKinnon (2025-25) · Leon Draisaitl (2025-25) · Nikita Kucherov (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 12:30 | PP | Goal | MacKinnon (Makar, Necas) → 2-0 | Kadri · Nelson · Schwartz · MacKinnon · Roy · Necas · Hughes Toews · Makar · Malinski | Copp · Rasmussen · Dries · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson Tarasov (G) |
| P3 07:15 | EV | Assist | Necas (MacKinnon, Toews) → 3-0 | Nelson · Schwartz · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas · Hughes Burns · Toews · Juulsen · Makar | Copp · Kolesar · Dries · Raymond · Mazur · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk · Seider · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
| P3 09:45 | PP | Assist | Makar (MacKinnon, Necas) → 4-0 | Kadri · MacKinnon · Necas · Kelly · O'Connor · Svechkov · Hughes Burns · Juulsen · Makar | Compher · Kolesar · Dries · Mazur Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson Tarasov (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 16:35 | PP | Assist | Kadri (MacKinnon, Makar) → 2-6 | Kadri · Nelson · Schwartz · Landeskog · MacKinnon · Hughes Toews · Makar | Monahan · Olivier · Sillinger Werenski · Provorov · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| P1 10:57 | EV | Assist | Makar (MacKinnon, Malinski) → 1-2 | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Burns · Makar · Malinski | Coyle · Garland · Lomberg · Olivier · Sillinger · Belluz Severson · Werenski · Fabbro · Christiansen Talbot (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nathan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas COL | 151 | 10 | |
| Cale Makar COL | 134 | 10 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen COL | 125 | 10 | |
| Devon Toews COL | 94 | 10 | |
| Nazem Kadri COL | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats