Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals34 × 3+102
- proj assists69 × 1+69
- PP points42 × 0.5+21
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots261 × 0.1+26.1
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1771 × 0.01+17.7
- total241 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242241 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 241 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.3% shooting on 56 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.9% (1685 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.6%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Lightning | 52 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13:07 | 3 | 0 | 102 | 8.8% | 100.0% |
| 2014-15 | Lightning | 82 | 29 | 36 | 65 | 38 | 37 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 14:57 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Lightning | 77 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 9 | 30 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 18:13 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Lightning | 74 | 40 | 45 | 85 | 13 | 38 | 17 | 32 | 0 | 19:26 | 7 | 1 | 246 | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 80 | 39 | 61 | 100 | 15 | 42 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 19:49 | 7 | 0 | 279 | 14.0% | 60.0% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 82 | 41 | 87 | 128 | 24 | 62 | 15 | 48 | 0 | 19:58 | 8 | 0 | 246 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 68 | 33 | 52 | 85 | 26 | 38 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 18:52 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 47 | 25 | 44 | 69 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 19:59 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 16.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 82 | 30 | 83 | 113 | -2 | 36 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 20:08 | 4 | 0 | 271 | 11.1% | 100.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 81 | 44 | 100 | 144 | 8 | 22 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 21:40 | 6 | 1 | 306 | 14.4% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 78 | 37 | 84 | 121 | 22 | 45 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 21:11 | 9 | 1 | 265 | 14.0% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 76 | 44 | 86 | 130 | 43 | 50 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 20:20 | 8 | 2 | 231 | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 21:04 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 13.8% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 34 | 69 | 103 | — | 34 | — | 38 | — | 18:43 | — | — | 207 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Connor McDavid (2025-25) · Nathan MacKinnon (2025-25) · Nikita Kucherov (2025-25) · Leon Draisaitl (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P1 02:57 | EV | Assist | #? (D'Astous, Kucherov) → 1-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel Carlson · D'Astous | Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| P3 07:41 | EV | Assist | #? (Guentzel, Kucherov) → 3-1 | Kucherov · Guentzel McDonagh · Crozier | Coyle · Johnson · Knies Provorov · Fabbro Greaves (G) |
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 01:25 | EV | Goal | #? (Hagel, #?) → 5-3 | Hagel · O'Reilly Hedman · Moser | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Power · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) · Ellis (G) |
| P3 04:11 | EV | Goal | #? (Carlson, Cirelli) → 6-3 | Cirelli · Hagel Carlson · D'Astous | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin Ellis (G) |
| P3 14:13 | PP | Goal | #? (Carlson, Guentzel) → 7-3 | Guentzel · O'Reilly Carlson · D'Astous | Malenstyn · McLeod Timmins · Samuelsson Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nikita over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel TBL | 139 | 10 | |
| John Carlson TBL | 116 | 10 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous TBL | 116 | 10 | |
| Brayden Point TBL | 107 | 8 | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 83 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats