Noah Dobson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals3 × 3+9
- proj assists34 × 1+34
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots187 × 0.1+18.7
- PIM56 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)1772 × 0.01+17.7
- total85 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16685 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −4.5
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.1% (1030 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.6%, worth PD −4.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Islanders | 34 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 46 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 16:24 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Islanders | 80 | 13 | 38 | 51 | -3 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 21:28 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 78 | 13 | 36 | 49 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 20:23 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 79 | 10 | 60 | 70 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 24:31 | 4 | 0 | 174 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 71 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -16 | 28 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 23:16 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 80 | 12 | 35 | 47 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22:29 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 3 | 34 | 36 | — | 53 | — | 6 | — | 20:17 | — | — | 150 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · John Marino (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 15:25 | EV | Assist | Suzuki (Slafkovský, Dobson) → 1-2 | Danault · Suzuki · Texier · Caufield · Bolduc · Slafkovský Carrier · Dobson · Guhle · Hutson | Lee · Schmaltz · Keller · Hayton · McBain · Guenther Schmidt · Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| P3 14:54 | EV | Assist | Engstrom (Evans, #?) → 4-4 | Anderson · Evans · Dach Carrier · Guhle · Engstrom | Lee · Schmaltz · Keller · Hayton · Guenther · Cooley Weegar · Sergachev · DeSimone · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 04:00 | PP | Assist | Caufield (Dobson, Slafkovský) → 3-0 | Kreider · Danault · Texier · Caufield · Newhook · Kapanen · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Lowry · Iafallo · Koepke DeMelo · Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 16:05 | EV | Assist | Newhook (Dobson, Hutson) → 2-1 | Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Dobson · Xhekaj · Hutson · Engstrom | Benn · Kiviranta · Hyry Heiskanen · Lundkvist · Harley · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| P2 06:11 | EV | Assist | Newhook (Kreider, Dobson) → 4-1 | Kreider · Danault · Anderson · Evans · Texier · Newhook · Kapanen Carrier · Dobson · Guhle | Blackwell · Rantanen · Steel · Johnston · Hyry Myers · Lundkvist · Bichsel · Taylor Oettinger (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Noah over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson MTL | 147 | 10 | |
| Alex Newhook MTL | 71 | 10 | |
| Alexandre Texier MTL | 60 | 10 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský MTL | 59 | 10 | |
| Cole Caufield MTL | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats