Noel Acciari
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 29?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists10 × 1+10
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM24 × 0.05+1.2
- ice time (min)1119 × 0.01+11.2
- total69 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24269 = 29/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 69 points is 29 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.6% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.0% (643 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.4%, worth PD +0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Bruins | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 44.1% |
| 2016-17 | Bruins | 29 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 8.3% | 37.9% |
| 2017-18 | Bruins | 60 | 10 | 1 | 11 | -6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:55 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 15.2% | 45.2% |
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 72 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -3 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 6.1% | 49.6% |
| 2019-20 | Panthers | 66 | 20 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:58 | 5 | 0 | 108 | 18.5% | 48.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 41 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:24 | 1 | 0 | 68 | 5.9% | 52.4% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9.4% | 50.6% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 54 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 13.5% | 53.5% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 23 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 14.3% | 55.4% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 55 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 6.8% | 54.5% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 79 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -25 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 6.7% | 53.7% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 67 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 14.0% | 52.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 53.3% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 12 | 10 | 22 | — | 31 | — | 0 | — | 13:60 | — | — | 111 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jason Dickinson (2025-25) · Austin Watson (2022-22) · Joel Kiviranta (2025-25) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Noel Acciari (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 02:16 | EV | Goal | Acciari (Seeler, Couturier) → 2-1 | Couturier · Acciari · Tippett · Zegras · Knuble · Barkey Seeler · Benoit | Frost · Sharangovich · Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna · Suniev Middleton · Whitecloud · Kuznetsov · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYR | |||||
| P2 12:09 | EV | Goal | Acciari (Barkey, Drysdale) → 2-1 | Couturier · Acciari · Tippett · Knuble · Barkey · Martone Sanheim · York · Drysdale · Bonk | Miller · Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Kartye · Cuylle · Perreault Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox · Schneider Garand (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 18:26 | EV | Assist | Knuble (Acciari, Drysdale) → 6-3 | Couturier · Acciari · Cates · Knuble · Michkov · Martone Seeler · Benoit · York · Drysdale | Lee · Trocheck · Stenlund · Keller · Carcone · Hayton · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev · Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Noel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier PHI | 78 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 71 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 46 | 10 | |
| Nick Seeler PHI | 43 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 36 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats