Ondrej Palat
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 26?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists12 × 1+12
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots74 × 0.1+7.4
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1165 × 0.01+11.7
- total63 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24263 = 26/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 63 points is 26 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.3% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (957 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD +0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Lightning | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Lightning | 81 | 23 | 36 | 59 | 32 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 18:02 | 3 | 0 | 165 | 13.9% | 13.5% |
| 2014-15 | Lightning | 75 | 16 | 47 | 63 | 31 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 17:26 | 5 | 1 | 139 | 11.5% | 28.6% |
| 2015-16 | Lightning | 62 | 16 | 24 | 40 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 17:55 | 4 | 1 | 117 | 13.7% | 25.0% |
| 2016-17 | Lightning | 75 | 17 | 35 | 52 | 8 | 39 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 19:07 | 3 | 0 | 162 | 10.5% | 26.5% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 56 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 17:00 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 10.1% | 22.6% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 64 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14:53 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 8.0% | 11.8% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 69 | 17 | 24 | 41 | 25 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16:11 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 13.3% | 33.3% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 55 | 15 | 31 | 46 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 17:27 | 6 | 0 | 111 | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 77 | 18 | 31 | 49 | 15 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16:30 | 5 | 2 | 143 | 12.6% | 11.1% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 49 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:32 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 71 | 11 | 20 | 31 | -9 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 15:39 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 10.2% | 23.5% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 77 | 15 | 13 | 28 | -5 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:45 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 51 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 7.5% | 42.9% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 29 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 35.7% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 10 | 12 | 21 | — | 41 | — | 1 | — | 14:25 | — | — | 108 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jason Dickinson (2025-25) · Colton Sissons (2025-25) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Joel Kiviranta (2025-25) · Noel Acciari (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 08:07 | EV | Assist | Schenn (Palat) → 2-0 | Schenn · Duclair · Palat Stanley · DeAngelo | Forsberg · Drury · Edstrom Struble · Hague Saros (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 13:39 | EV | Goal | Palat (Pageau, Duclair) → 1-0 | Palat · Pageau · Duclair Stanley · Schaefer | Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson Luneau · Mintyukov Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ondrej over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair NYI | 93 | 10 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI | 90 | 9 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 59 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 52 | 10 | |
| Adam Pelech NYI | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats