Phillip Danault
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots107 × 0.1+10.7
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1436 × 0.01+14.4
- total74 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24274 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 74 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.3% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.3% (1149 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.7%, worth PD −1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Blackhawks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| 2015-16 | Blackhawks | 30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 2.1% | 44.2% |
| 2015-16 | Canadiens | 21 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12.5% | 56.0% |
| 2016-17 | Canadiens | 82 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:35 | 3 | 1 | 133 | 9.8% | 51.7% |
| 2017-18 | Canadiens | 52 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16:35 | 2 | 0 | 94 | 8.5% | 52.8% |
| 2018-19 | Canadiens | 81 | 12 | 41 | 53 | 17 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17:47 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 9.1% | 55.5% |
| 2019-20 | Canadiens | 71 | 13 | 34 | 47 | 18 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18:51 | 1 | 0 | 131 | 9.9% | 54.5% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 53 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 6.8% | 52.5% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 79 | 27 | 24 | 51 | 14 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18:08 | 5 | 0 | 194 | 13.9% | 53.6% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 82 | 18 | 36 | 54 | -8 | 63 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 18:20 | 1 | 1 | 152 | 11.8% | 54.4% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 78 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 12 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 18:01 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 10.7% | 51.9% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 80 | 8 | 35 | 43 | 20 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:40 | 3 | 0 | 123 | 6.5% | 52.2% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 30 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0.0% | 52.9% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 45 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:04 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 12.2% | 56.2% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 7.7% | 55.1% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 9 | 22 | 31 | — | 18 | — | 0 | — | 16:20 | — | — | 126 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mathieu Joseph (2025-25) · Radek Faksa (2025-25) · Phillip Danault (2025-25) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Nic Dowd (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ BOS | |||||
| P2 14:15 | EV | Goal | Danault (Bolduc, Carrier) → 5-0 | Kreider · Danault · Anderson · Evans · Texier · Bolduc Carrier · Xhekaj | Lindholm · Eyssimont · Geekie · Mittelstadt · Khusnutdinov · Minten Zadorov · Borgen DiPietro (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 01:54 | EV | Assist | Texier (Hutson, #?) → 3-2 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Texier Xhekaj · Hutson · Engstrom | Malkin · Lapierre · Chinakhov · Koivunen · Kuzmenko · Kindel Letang · Karlsson · Carlile Murashov (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 07:24 | EV | Assist | Caufield (Danault, Carrier) → 1-0 | Danault · Texier · Caufield · Bolduc · Slafkovský Carrier · Guhle | Benn · Blackwell · Kiviranta · Seminoff · Hryckowian · Hyry Heiskanen · Lundkvist · Harley · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| P3 19:12 | EV | Goal | Danault (Evans) → 5-2 | Danault · Anderson · Evans · Dach · Kapanen · Xhekaj Carrier · Guhle · Xhekaj · Engstrom | Seguin · Rantanen · Hintz · Steel · Robertson · Johnston · Hryckowian · Hyry Heiskanen · Lundkvist · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 23 · @ CHI | |||||
| P3 17:22 | EV | Assist | Matheson (Danault) → 4-1 | Anderson · Danault · Evans Matheson · Carrier | Bertuzzi · Kantserov · Teravainen · Kane · Nazar · Bedard |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Phillip over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier MTL | 104 | 10 | |
| Zachary Bolduc MTL | 104 | 10 | |
| Kaiden Guhle MTL | 82 | 10 | |
| Alexandre Carrier MTL | 77 | 10 | |
| Noah Dobson MTL | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats