Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 56?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals12 × 0.5+6
- OT goals6 × 0.25+1.5
- shots216 × 0.1+21.6
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1615 × 0.01+16.2
- total136 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242136 = 56/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 136 points is 56 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 20:29/game over the last 6, up 23% from 16:41 earlier in the season.
- Shooting more: 3.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Availability: played 11 of 13 for LAK — missed 2 games (2026-10-22, 2026-10-24).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.4% (620 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD −1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Kings | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 39.4% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 40 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:09 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 12.8% | 45.4% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 53 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 4.1% | 47.2% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 80 | 20 | 35 | 55 | 19 | 42 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16:29 | 4 | 0 | 161 | 12.4% | 45.6% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 81 | 23 | 31 | 54 | 16 | 46 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 18:37 | 4 | 3 | 157 | 14.6% | 44.1% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 79 | 24 | 25 | 49 | -2 | 46 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 20:01 | 4 | 3 | 180 | 13.3% | 45.5% |
| 2026-27 | Kings | 15 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 19:16 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 12.8% | 55.7% |
| 84-G proj | Kings | 84 | 21 | 19 | 40 | — | 21 | — | 14 | — | 17:21 | — | — | 178 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · James Neal (2020-20) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 9 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 18:38 | PP | Goal | Byfield (Panarin, Kempe) → 3-0 | Haula · Armia · Kempe · Panarin · Byfield · Laferriere · Connors Doughty · Edmundson · Gustafsson | Sherwood · Ostapchuk · Smith · Celebrini · Graf Trouba · Nurse · Kesselring · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| P3 14:28 | PP | Goal | Byfield (Panarin, Gustafsson) → 7-2 | Haula · Armia · Kempe · Panarin · Byfield · Laferriere · Connors Dumoulin · Gustafsson · Anderson | Goodrow · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring · Pohlkamp Askarov (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 06:51 | EV | Assist | Moore (Byfield, Doughty) → 2-1 | Perry · Moore · Byfield Doughty · Dumoulin · Anderson | Giroux · Zetterlund · Pinto · Stützle Kleven · Sanderson · Zub Johansson (G) |
| P4 03:37 | EV | Goal | Byfield (Doughty, #?) → 6-5 | Kempe · Byfield Doughty | Batherson · Pinto Chabot Ersson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Quinton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin LAK | 85 | 10 | |
| Adrian Kempe LAK | 71 | 9 | |
| Trevor Moore LAK | 70 | 10 | |
| Corey Perry LAK | 68 | 10 | |
| Drew Doughty LAK | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats