Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 74?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points34 × 0.5+17
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots280 × 0.1+28
- PIM45 × 0.05+2.3
- ice time (min)1695 × 0.01+17
- total178 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242178 = 74/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 178 points is 74 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.7 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Availability: played 12 of 13 for LAK — missed 1 game (2026-10-31).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.0% shooting on 50 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (1599 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.7%, worth PD −1.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Kings | 25 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:14 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 6.3% | 43.8% |
| 2017-18 | Kings | 81 | 16 | 21 | 37 | 11 | 49 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13:20 | 3 | 0 | 119 | 13.5% | 38.5% |
| 2018-19 | Kings | 81 | 12 | 16 | 28 | -10 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14:30 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 10.2% | 42.6% |
| 2019-20 | Kings | 69 | 11 | 21 | 32 | -10 | 29 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 16:01 | 2 | 1 | 148 | 7.4% | 41.3% |
| 2020-21 | Kings | 56 | 14 | 15 | 29 | -18 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 16:56 | 2 | 1 | 127 | 11.0% | 39.7% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 78 | 35 | 19 | 54 | -2 | 46 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 18:35 | 7 | 2 | 247 | 14.2% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 82 | 41 | 26 | 67 | 22 | 55 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 18:45 | 6 | 1 | 250 | 16.4% | 31.4% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 77 | 28 | 47 | 75 | 13 | 72 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 18:56 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 11.4% | 23.1% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 81 | 35 | 38 | 73 | 22 | 36 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 19:09 | 5 | 1 | 237 | 14.8% | 45.8% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 81 | 36 | 37 | 73 | 14 | 58 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 19:18 | 8 | 4 | 226 | 15.9% | 36.2% |
| 2026-27 | Kings | 16 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -2 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 20:06 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 11.3% | 41.1% |
| 84-G proj | Kings | 84 | 27 | 33 | 60 | — | 44 | — | 19 | — | 17:57 | — | — | 209 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jared McCann (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Dylan Larkin (2025-25) · Rickard Rakell (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 03:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Kempe, Gustafsson) → 2-3 | Kempe · Panarin · Byfield Gustafsson | Dewar · Lizotte Korczak · Carlile Murashov (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 01:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Panarin, Doughty) → 1-0 | Panarin · Laferriere Doughty · Edmundson | Marchment · Sherwood · Misa Trouba · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| P1 16:09 | EV | Goal | #? (Gustafsson, Clarke) → 2-0 | Panarin · Laferriere Gustafsson · Clarke | Goodrow · Dellandrea · Ostapchuk Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| P1 18:38 | PP | Assist | #? (Panarin, Kempe) → 3-0 | Kempe · Panarin · Laferriere Gustafsson | Ostapchuk · Graf Trouba · Nurse Askarov (G) |
| P2 15:51 | PP | Goal | #? (Laferriere, Panarin) → 5-1 | Panarin · Byfield · Laferriere Gustafsson | Sherwood · Graf Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adrian over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin LAK | 170 | 10 | |
| Alex Laferriere LAK | 126 | 10 | |
| Quinton Byfield LAK | 90 | 10 | |
| Brandt Clarke LAK | 84 | 10 | |
| Erik Gustafsson LAK | 63 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats