Alex Laferriere
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists35 × 1+35
- PP points16 × 0.5+8
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots257 × 0.1+25.7
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1618 × 0.01+16.2
- total137 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242137 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 137 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 5.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.9 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for LAK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −4.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.1% shooting on 49 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.3% (549 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.4%, worth PD −4.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Kings | 81 | 12 | 11 | 23 | -14 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13:13 | 2 | 0 | 147 | 8.2% | 53.8% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 77 | 19 | 23 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 16:32 | 4 | 0 | 193 | 9.8% | 37.1% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 82 | 21 | 23 | 44 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18:19 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 10.0% | 42.3% |
| 2026-27 | Kings | 17 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19:18 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 6.0% | 47.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kings | 84 | 17 | 35 | 52 | — | 31 | — | 9 | — | 17:31 | — | — | 200 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Kent Johnson (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Anton Lundell (2025-25) · Zach Benson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 03:07 | PP | Goal | #? (Kempe, Gustafsson) → 2-3 | Kempe · Panarin · Byfield Gustafsson | Dewar · Lizotte Korczak · Carlile Murashov (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs SJS | |||||
| P2 15:51 | PP | Assist | #? (Laferriere, Panarin) → 5-1 | Panarin · Byfield · Laferriere Gustafsson | Sherwood · Graf Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ NYR | |||||
| P2 01:30 | PP | Assist | Panarin (Gustafsson, #?) → 4-1 | Kempe · Panarin · Byfield Gustafsson | Laba · Cuylle Fox · Pettersson Garand (G) |
| P3 16:37 | EV | Assist | Edmundson (Doughty, Laferriere) → 6-3 | Moore · Laferriere · Byfield Edmundson · Doughty | Miller · Lafrenière · Dorofeyev · Zibanejad · Perreault Fox |
| Oct 22 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 05:51 | EV | Assist | Panarin (Laferriere, Clarke) → 1-0 | Kempe · Panarin · Laferriere Gustafsson · Clarke | Duclair · Pageau · Palat Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin LAK | 150 | 10 | |
| Adrian Kempe LAK | 124 | 9 | |
| Brandt Clarke LAK | 77 | 10 | |
| Erik Gustafsson LAK | 67 | 7 | |
| Quinton Byfield LAK | 48 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats