Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 76?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points21 × 0.5+10.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM110 × 0.05+5.5
- ice time (min)1621 × 0.01+16.2
- total126 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166126 = 76/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 126 points is 76 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 2.0 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for LAK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 11.5% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.1% (332 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.3 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.1%, worth PD +2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Panarin 15.7%, Laferriere 6.1%, Kempe 12.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Kings | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 16 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13:39 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 78 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 13 | 46 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 16:17 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 82 | 8 | 32 | 40 | 11 | 63 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 19:48 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Kings | 17 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -6 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kings | 84 | 13 | 37 | 50 | — | 86 | — | 16 | — | 19:12 | — | — | 120 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Darren Raddysh (2025-25) · Jake Sanderson (2025-25) · Brandt Clarke (2025-25) · Dougie Hamilton (2025-25) · Charlie McAvoy (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 16:09 | EV | Assist | #? (Gustafsson, Clarke) → 2-0 | Panarin · Laferriere Gustafsson · Clarke | Goodrow · Dellandrea · Ostapchuk Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs BUF | |||||
| P2 17:24 | PP | Assist | #? (Moore, Clarke) → 1-2 | Haula · Moore Doughty · Clarke | Malenstyn · Kozak Samuelsson · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs OTT | |||||
| P1 15:09 | PP | Assist | Haula (Clarke, Doughty) → 1-1 | Perry · Haula · Moore Doughty · Clarke | Amadio · Stützle Chabot · Kleven Johansson (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ NYR | |||||
| P1 04:52 | EV | Goal | Clarke (Laughton, Armia) → 2-0 | Panarin · Laughton · Armia · Haula Gustafsson · Clarke | Raddysh · Kartye · Laba Durzi · Pettersson Reimer (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 05:51 | EV | Assist | Panarin (Laferriere, Clarke) → 1-0 | Kempe · Panarin · Laferriere Gustafsson · Clarke | Duclair · Pageau · Palat Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brandt over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Gustafsson LAK | 93 | 7 | |
| Artemi Panarin LAK | 90 | 10 | |
| Alex Laferriere LAK | 77 | 10 | |
| Adrian Kempe LAK | 73 | 9 | |
| Quinton Byfield LAK | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats