Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 98?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals40 × 3+120
- proj assists53 × 1+53
- PP points34 × 0.5+17
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots235 × 0.1+23.5
- PIM67 × 0.05+3.4
- ice time (min)1656 × 0.01+16.6
- total238 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242238 = 98/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 238 points is 98 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 21.4% shooting on 56 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.4% (1654 shots before this season) — that's 3.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.6 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.3%, worth PD +6.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Svechnikov 15.3%, Carrier 3.2%, Slavin 0.0%, Chatfield 8.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Hurricanes | 82 | 24 | 25 | 49 | -1 | 26 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 16:47 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 11.2% | 48.6% |
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 78 | 29 | 36 | 65 | 4 | 24 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 17:55 | 4 | 0 | 200 | 14.5% | 45.4% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 82 | 30 | 53 | 83 | 25 | 26 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 20:09 | 7 | 3 | 243 | 12.3% | 48.6% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 68 | 38 | 28 | 66 | 10 | 26 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 19:25 | 5 | 0 | 206 | 18.4% | 46.0% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 56 | 24 | 33 | 57 | 16 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 19:28 | 7 | 1 | 148 | 16.2% | 52.8% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 79 | 37 | 44 | 81 | 18 | 38 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 18:57 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 16.7% | 52.4% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 75 | 36 | 31 | 67 | 8 | 42 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 19:30 | 9 | 2 | 218 | 16.5% | 51.4% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 78 | 36 | 53 | 89 | 34 | 36 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 19:38 | 10 | 2 | 216 | 16.7% | 54.1% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 79 | 29 | 45 | 74 | 7 | 46 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 20:06 | 9 | 5 | 207 | 14.0% | 55.3% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 79 | 27 | 53 | 80 | 11 | 46 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 19:37 | 4 | 2 | 195 | 13.8% | 50.5% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 12 | 16 | 28 | 15 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 19:43 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 21.4% | 56.2% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 40 | 53 | 93 | — | 58 | — | 30 | — | 18:01 | — | — | 195 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 12:50 | PP | Goal | #? (Blake, Ehlers) → 2-0 | Ehlers · Svechnikov · Blake Gostisbehere | Stephenson · Winterton Larsson · Mahura Grubauer (G) |
| P3 11:41 | EV | Goal | #? (Miller, Svechnikov) → 4-0 | Martinook · Svechnikov Walker · Miller | Eberle · McMann · Beniers Mahura · Ottavainen Grubauer (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 10:36 | EV | Goal | #? (Walker, Carrier) → 6-0 | Carrier · Svechnikov Walker · Miller | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) · Soderblom (G) |
| P2 18:06 | EV | Assist | #? (Gostisbehere, Aho) → 7-0 | Aho · Robinson · Svechnikov Gostisbehere | Nazar · Moore · Frondell Kaiser · Korchinski Soderblom (G) |
| P3 19:47 | EV | Assist | #? (Aho) → 9-2 | Martinook · Aho Walker · Miller | Donato · Smith · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sebastian over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov CAR | 166 | 10 | |
| William Carrier CAR | 112 | 10 | |
| Jaccob Slavin CAR | 80 | 10 | |
| Jalen Chatfield CAR | 75 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats