Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 84?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals35 × 3+105
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points49 × 0.5+24.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots208 × 0.1+20.8
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1561 × 0.01+15.6
- total204 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242204 = 84/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 204 points is 84 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.9 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 23.4% shooting on 47 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 16.3% (1836 shots before this season) — that's 3.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 19.4%, worth PD +6.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (O'Reilly 22.6%, Josi 3.9%, Bourque 0.0%, Wilsby 4.2%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | Lightning | 79 | 23 | 23 | 46 | -13 | 39 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 14:56 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 12.7% | 45.4% |
| 2009-10 | Lightning | 82 | 51 | 44 | 95 | -2 | 38 | 24 | 41 | 1 | 20:33 | 5 | 1 | 297 | 17.2% | 47.9% |
| 2010-11 | Lightning | 82 | 45 | 46 | 91 | 3 | 74 | 17 | 36 | 0 | 20:12 | 8 | 1 | 272 | 16.5% | 46.5% |
| 2011-12 | Lightning | 82 | 60 | 37 | 97 | 7 | 66 | 12 | 25 | 0 | 22:01 | 12 | 5 | 303 | 19.8% | 45.5% |
| 2012-13 | Lightning | 48 | 29 | 28 | 57 | -4 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 22:01 | 2 | 0 | 157 | 18.5% | 49.6% |
| 2013-14 | Lightning | 37 | 25 | 15 | 40 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 20:15 | 5 | 1 | 124 | 20.2% | 49.1% |
| 2014-15 | Lightning | 82 | 43 | 29 | 72 | 2 | 49 | 13 | 25 | 0 | 19:22 | 6 | 0 | 268 | 16.0% | 49.7% |
| 2015-16 | Lightning | 77 | 36 | 28 | 64 | 3 | 38 | 14 | 23 | 1 | 19:45 | 8 | 0 | 216 | 16.7% | 50.0% |
| 2016-17 | Lightning | 17 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17:53 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 15.5% | 53.5% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 78 | 27 | 59 | 86 | 18 | 72 | 15 | 33 | 0 | 18:46 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 12.7% | 52.2% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 82 | 45 | 53 | 98 | 4 | 37 | 19 | 40 | 2 | 18:18 | 6 | 0 | 234 | 19.2% | 53.1% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 57 | 29 | 37 | 66 | 14 | 22 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 18:25 | 6 | 0 | 176 | 16.5% | 54.3% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 38 | 17 | 17 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 18:16 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 18.7% | 57.2% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 81 | 42 | 64 | 106 | 24 | 36 | 16 | 36 | 0 | 18:29 | 11 | 3 | 241 | 17.4% | 51.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 81 | 34 | 50 | 84 | -5 | 46 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 19:01 | 6 | 2 | 240 | 14.2% | 53.8% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 79 | 40 | 41 | 81 | -21 | 34 | 19 | 39 | 0 | 18:14 | 6 | 0 | 262 | 15.3% | 56.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 82 | 27 | 26 | 53 | -36 | 48 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 18:00 | 6 | 1 | 174 | 15.5% | 49.9% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 82 | 42 | 24 | 66 | -17 | 58 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 17:50 | 10 | 3 | 206 | 20.4% | 57.7% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 11 | 9 | 20 | -4 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 18:35 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 23.4% | 62.8% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 35 | 33 | 68 | — | 39 | — | 33 | — | 17:16 | — | — | 178 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Ovechkin (2025-25) · Auston Matthews (2025-25) · Tage Thompson (2025-25) · Sam Reinhart (2025-25) · Filip Forsberg (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 16:04 | EV | Goal | Stamkos (Bourque, Josi) → 4-2 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Colton · Drury · Edstrom · Bourque Josi · Wilsby | Killorn · Granlund · Terry · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs STL | |||||
| P1 16:07 | PP | Goal | Stamkos (Bourque, Josi) → 1-1 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg · Colton · Drury · Edstrom · Bourque Josi · Perbix · Wilsby | Buchnevich · Toropchenko · Suter · McMichael · Dvorsky Parayko · Broberg · Barron Hofer (G) |
| P3 18:31 | EV | Assist | Perbix (Stamkos, Forsberg) → 3-1 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg · Colton · Drury · Edstrom Josi · Perbix · Wilsby | Buchnevich · Johnston · Thomas · Toropchenko · Suter · McMichael · Holloway Fowler · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ COL | |||||
| P4 02:18 | PP | Goal | Stamkos (Josi, O'Reilly) → 3-2 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg Josi | Nelson Burns · Kulak Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs TBL | |||||
| P3 07:27 | PP | Goal | Stamkos (Forsberg, O'Reilly) → 4-4 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Marchessault · Forsberg · Hoglander · Wood Josi · Struble · Hunt | Cirelli · Hagel · Holmberg · Mikheyev · James McDonagh · Hedman · Crozier · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Steven over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly NSH | 159 | 10 | |
| Roman Josi NSH | 129 | 10 | |
| Mavrik Bourque NSH | 94 | 7 | |
| Adam Wilsby NSH | 79 | 10 | |
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 69 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats