Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 77?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists40 × 1+40
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals10 × 0.5+5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM49 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)2096 × 0.01+21
- total128 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166128 = 77/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 128 points is 77 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 13.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for DAL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.9% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.7% (472 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.0%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Stars | 34 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 79 | 15 | 32 | 47 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 21:01 | 3 | 3 | 144 | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 78 | 16 | 34 | 50 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 23:23 | 3 | 2 | 171 | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 70 | 6 | 30 | 36 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:03 | 4 | 2 | 113 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 18 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 25:02 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 10 | 40 | 49 | — | 49 | — | 14 | — | 22:31 | — | — | 140 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Luke Hughes (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 04:19 | EV | Assist | Hyry (Hintz, Harley) → 1-0 | Perron · Faksa · Hintz · Robertson · Kiviranta · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Harley · Taylor | Lowry · Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Iafallo · Björck DeMelo · Morrissey · Ferraro · Bauer Skinner (G) |
| P2 11:14 | EV | Assist | Perron (Harley, Lundkvist) → 3-2 | Perron · Seguin · Hintz · Robertson · Hryckowian · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Barron · Koepke · Rosén Morrissey · Ferraro · Pionk · Bauer Skinner (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 09:16 | PP | Assist | Hintz (Johnston, Harley) → 1-1 | Hintz · Steel · Robertson · Johnston · Hyry Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley | Goodrow · Smith · Celebrini Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring · Pohlkamp Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P1 16:51 | PP | Assist | Robertson (Rantanen, Harley) → 3-1 | Rantanen · Hintz · Steel · Robertson · Johnston Lundkvist · Harley | Goodrow · Dellandrea · Smith · Celebrini · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Nurse · Pohlkamp Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P2 14:30 | PP | Goal | Harley (Johnston, Rantanen) → 4-2 | Benn · Perron · Rantanen · Robertson · Johnston · Hryckowian · Hyry Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley | Goodrow · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Nurse · Pohlkamp Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Thomas over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Lundkvist DAL | 114 | 10 | |
| Jason Robertson DAL | 92 | 10 | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL | 84 | 10 | |
| Roope Hintz DAL | 78 | 10 | |
| Tyler Seguin DAL | 71 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats