Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots323 × 0.1+32.3
- PIM119 × 0.05+6
- ice time (min)1390 × 0.01+13.9
- total121 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242121 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 121 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 4.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −12.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.1% shooting on 73 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (2182 shots before this season) — that's 5.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.3%, worth PD −12.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Sharks | 34 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 3.5% | 20.0% |
| 2017-18 | Sharks | 81 | 21 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 51 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:52 | 4 | 0 | 210 | 10.0% | 48.6% |
| 2018-19 | Sharks | 78 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 9 | 55 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 16:58 | 2 | 2 | 250 | 12.0% | 31.6% |
| 2019-20 | Sharks | 70 | 22 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 42 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17:17 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 11.1% | 32.4% |
| 2020-21 | Sharks | 54 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -5 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 16:03 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 7.7% | 28.6% |
| 2021-22 | Sharks | 77 | 35 | 41 | 76 | -3 | 54 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 19:09 | 8 | 1 | 326 | 10.7% | 48.6% |
| 2022-23 | Sharks | 57 | 31 | 21 | 52 | -19 | 25 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 19:59 | 4 | 1 | 255 | 12.2% | 40.4% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 21 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17:47 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 69 | 28 | 24 | 52 | -28 | 45 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 17:36 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 13.5% | 48.9% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 80 | 26 | 27 | 53 | 7 | 58 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 17:52 | 5 | 0 | 239 | 10.9% | 30.8% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 77 | 24 | 20 | 44 | -16 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 18:31 | 5 | 0 | 269 | 8.9% | 45.6% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:38 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 3.9% | 38.5% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 15 | 20 | 35 | — | 88 | — | 8 | — | 16:01 | — | — | 235 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Brett Howden (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | vs WSH | Assist | 02:20 · P1 · PP | Rodrigues (Meier, Gritsyuk) → 1-0 | Rodrigues · Meier · Evangelista · Gritsyuk Hamilton | Protas · Tuch Liljegren · Fehérváry · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Nov 8 | @ TOR | Goal | 08:28 · P2 · EV | Meier (Chisholm, Hischier) → 1-0 | Hischier · Meier · Evangelista Kovacevic · Chisholm | Nylander · Tavares · McKenna McCabe · Raddysh Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 8 | @ TOR | Goal | 12:44 · P2 · EV | Meier (Hughes, Bratt) → 2-0 | Meier · Bratt · Hughes Pesce · Hughes | Sissons · Tavares · McKenna Raddysh · Ekman-Larsson Stolarz (G) |
| Oct 27 | @ DAL | Assist | 00:38 · P2 · EV | Hischier (Meier, Hughes) → 2-0 | Hischier · Meier · Evangelista Pesce · Hughes | Hyry · Hryckowian · Rantanen Heiskanen · Myers DeSmith (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Timo over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier NJD | 116 | 10 | |
| Luke Evangelista NJD | 109 | 8 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 72 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 64 | 10 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 62 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats