Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 68?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots206 × 0.1+20.6
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1304 × 0.01+13
- total164 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242164 = 68/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 164 points is 68 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 11.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.4% shooting on 49 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.6% (1471 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.3%, worth PD +3.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Sharks | 37 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15:20 | 3 | 0 | 98 | 15.3% | 56.9% |
| 2014-15 | Sharks | 82 | 13 | 18 | 31 | -5 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14:33 | 4 | 0 | 145 | 9.0% | 45.8% |
| 2015-16 | Sharks | 81 | 21 | 25 | 46 | 16 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15:58 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 10.4% | 56.0% |
| 2016-17 | Sharks | 49 | 10 | 12 | 22 | -8 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:13 | 4 | 0 | 100 | 10.0% | 51.7% |
| 2017-18 | Sharks | 79 | 22 | 24 | 46 | -2 | 41 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 18:06 | 5 | 1 | 175 | 12.6% | 50.8% |
| 2018-19 | Sharks | 77 | 35 | 39 | 74 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 19:01 | 5 | 1 | 176 | 19.9% | 51.5% |
| 2019-20 | Sharks | 48 | 16 | 20 | 36 | -18 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 18:27 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 13.7% | 54.8% |
| 2020-21 | Sharks | 50 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 19:08 | 2 | 0 | 112 | 17.0% | 55.2% |
| 2021-22 | Sharks | 82 | 30 | 34 | 64 | -9 | 30 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 19:56 | 6 | 3 | 205 | 14.6% | 52.5% |
| 2022-23 | Sharks | 79 | 22 | 41 | 63 | -36 | 42 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 19:17 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 12.0% | 54.8% |
| 2023-24 | Sharks | 48 | 15 | 19 | 34 | -26 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 20:54 | 1 | 1 | 113 | 13.3% | 56.3% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:12 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 18.2% | 69.4% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 73 | 32 | 29 | 61 | -3 | 20 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 17:07 | 3 | 0 | 177 | 18.1% | 55.9% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 82 | 24 | 34 | 58 | -17 | 39 | 13 | 25 | 0 | 17:02 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 11.9% | 57.8% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15:31 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 18.4% | 58.2% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 30 | 25 | 55 | — | 27 | — | 24 | — | 15:23 | — | — | 175 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25) · Sam Reinhart (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 08:16 | EV | Assist | Barbashev (Olofsson, Hertl) → 4-1 | Stone · Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Eichel · Connelly Wotherspoon · Coghlan | Lee · Crouse · Carcone · Yamamoto · Hayton Weegar · Peeke · Sergachev · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 05:43 | EV | Goal | Hertl (Marner) → 3-1 | Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Marner McNabb · Theodore | Zucker · Thompson · Norris · Krebs · Kulich · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
| P3 10:00 | EV | Goal | Hertl (Barbashev, Theodore) → 4-1 | Dowd · Hertl · Barbashev · Olofsson · Gatcomb · Bowman McNabb · Theodore · Andersson · Lauzon | Carrick · Malenstyn · Thompson · Krebs · Kozak · Benson Timmins · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 04:20 | EV | Assist | Bowman (Hertl, Olofsson) → 1-1 | Karlsson · Hertl · Olofsson · Marner · Howden · Bowman McNabb · Theodore · Hanifin · Coghlan | Copp · Kolesar · Dries · Raymond · Mazur · Brandsegg-Nygård Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson Tarasov (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 16:36 | PP | Goal | Hertl (Marner, Eichel) → 1-0 | Stone · Karlsson · Hertl · Barbashev · Eichel · Marner · Bowman · Connelly McNabb · Theodore | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Robertson · Koivunen Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tomas over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Connelly VGK | 87 | 10 | |
| Noah Hanifin VGK | 49 | 9 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 43 | 10 | |
| Raphael Lavoie VGK | 41 | 5 | |
| Victor Olofsson VGK | 41 | 3 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats