Tommy Novak
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists26 × 1+26
- PP points22 × 0.5+11
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots150 × 0.1+15
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1313 × 0.01+13.1
- total139 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242139 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 139 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.8/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.6% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.1% (453 shots before this season) — that's 2.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.5%, worth PD +3.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Crosby 15.0%, Rakell 13.0%, Karlsson 7.5%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Predators | 27 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11:48 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4.0% | 44.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 51 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 14:39 | 3 | 1 | 93 | 18.3% | 44.5% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 71 | 18 | 27 | 45 | -3 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 14:12 | 1 | 0 | 113 | 15.9% | 42.2% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 52 | 13 | 9 | 22 | -5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13:14 | 2 | 0 | 88 | 14.8% | 43.0% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 82 | 16 | 26 | 42 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14:17 | 2 | 1 | 130 | 12.3% | 42.9% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15:38 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 20.6% | 34.6% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 23 | 26 | 49 | — | 33 | — | 13 | — | 15:27 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Josh Norris (2025-25) · Egor Chinakhov (2025-25) · Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 01:52 | EV | Goal | #? (Carlile, Letang) → 1-0 | Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Carlile | Laughton · Turcotte · Lee Gustafsson · Clarke Kuemper (G) |
| P1 05:10 | EV | Goal | #? (Kindel) → 2-0 | Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Carlile | Laughton · Turcotte · Lee Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs VGK | |||||
| P3 01:09 | EV | Goal | Novak (Korczak, Stastney) → 1-1 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Stastney · Korczak | Stone · Eichel · Howden McNabb · Theodore Hill (G) |
| P3 09:58 | EV | Assist | #? (Novak, Korczak) → 2-1 | Crosby · Novak Stastney · Korczak | Karlsson · Barbashev · Marner Hanifin · Coghlan Hill (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 02:08 | PP | Assist | #? (Crosby, Novak) → 1-0 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Koivunen | Anderson · Newhook Guhle · Xhekaj Fowler (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tommy over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby PIT | 73 | 10 | |
| Rickard Rakell PIT | 73 | 10 | |
| Erik Karlsson PIT | 71 | 10 | |
| Ville Koivunen PIT | 56 | 8 | |
| Kris Letang PIT | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats