Trevor Connelly
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 59?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots151 × 0.1+15.1
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1202 × 0.01+12
- total142 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242142 = 59/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 142 points is 59 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 19.4% shooting on 36 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 2.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.7%, worth PD +3.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Hertl 18.4%, Eichel 18.0%, Stone 27.0%, Andersson 5.7%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:18 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 27 | 25 | 51 | — | 22 | — | 9 | — | 14:38 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 18:18 | EV | Goal | #? (Eichel, Andersson) → 2-1 | Stone · Eichel Hanifin · Andersson | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Chiarot · Seider Tarasov (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ PIT | |||||
| P3 11:19 | EV | Goal | #? (Lauzon) → 2-2 | Hertl McNabb · Andersson · Lauzon | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Letang · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ BOS | |||||
| P3 07:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Hanifin, Marner) → 2-2 | Karlsson · Marner Hanifin · Coghlan | Zacha · Geekie · Khusnutdinov Aspirot · Lohrei Swayman (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs OTT | |||||
| P3 18:00 | EV | Assist | Karlsson (Connelly, Marner) → 3-1 | Connelly · Karlsson · Marner McNabb · Theodore | Pinto · Stützle · Batherson · Cozens Spence · Kleven |
| Oct 24 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P1 17:13 | EV | Assist | Hertl (Bowman, Connelly) → 1-1 | Connelly · Bowman · Hertl Hanifin · Coghlan | Fantilli · Nichushkin · Johnson Soucy · Gudbranson Talbot (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Trevor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl VGK | 87 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 55 | 10 | |
| Mark Stone VGK | 50 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 48 | 10 | |
| Noah Hanifin VGK | 45 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats