Tristan Luneau
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 70?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots102 × 0.1+10.2
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1685 × 0.01+16.9
- total116 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166116 = 70/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 116 points is 70 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for ANA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.4% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.5% (21 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.2%, worth PD +2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Killorn 7.7%, Sennecke 21.3%, Carlsson 18.2%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 19 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:03 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 15 | 37 | 52 | — | 23 | — | 5 | — | 19:41 | — | — | 102 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 05:12 | PP | Goal | #? (Killorn, McQueen) → 4-0 | Killorn · Caulfield · Nesterenko · McQueen | Robertson · Kindel Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Nov 6 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 12:02 | EV | Goal | #? (LaCombe, Carlsson) → 2-3 | Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Sharangovich · Klapka · Suniev Hanley · Nemec Wolf (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 19:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Luneau, Mintyukov) → 4-2 | Gauthier · Carlsson Luneau · Mintyukov | Draisaitl · McDavid · Michaels Ekholm · Bouchard Tomkins (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ VAN | |||||
| P3 04:11 | EV | Assist | Gauthier (Sennecke, Luneau) → 5-2 | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke Luneau · Mitchell | Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Ohgren Brisebois · Buium Lankinen (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 19:18 | PP | Assist | #? (Luneau, Nesterenko) → 3-3 | Killorn · Nesterenko · McQueen Luneau | Pinto · Greig Sanderson · Zub Johansson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tristan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Mintyukov ANA | 66 | 9 | |
| Alex Killorn ANA | 59 | 10 | |
| Beckett Sennecke ANA | 57 | 10 | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 51 | 10 | |
| Roger McQueen ANA | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats