Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 65?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM139 × 0.05+7
- ice time (min)1470 × 0.01+14.7
- total158 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242158 = 65/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 158 points is 65 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 14:52/game over the last 6, down 20% from 18:34 earlier in the season.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 8.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +7.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 22.5% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (429 shots before this season) — that's 4.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.8%, worth PD +7.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Draisaitl 23.1%, McDavid 20.0%, Bouchard 21.2%, Ekholm 13.6%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 79 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:48 | 3 | 0 | 115 | 12.2% | 42.1% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 39 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 9.8% | 43.8% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 82 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 1 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 2 | 0 | 114 | 7.0% | 24.6% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 82 | 19 | 18 | 37 | 16 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:23 | 5 | 0 | 139 | 13.7% | 32.3% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 33 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17:30 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 22.5% | 40.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 27 | 22 | 49 | — | 101 | — | 12 | — | 16:38 | — | — | 157 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Jake Neighbours (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25) · Nick Robertson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · vs NYR | |||||
| P2 02:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Podkolzin, Ekholm) → 2-0 | McDavid · Podkolzin Ekholm · Bouchard | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider Garand (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 09:50 | EV | Goal | #? (Draisaitl, Bouchard) → 2-0 | Draisaitl · McDavid Ekholm · Bouchard | Horvat · MacLean · Chaffee Pelech · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs DET | |||||
| P1 06:10 | EV | Goal | Podkolzin (Draisaitl, McDavid) → 1-0 | Draisaitl · Podkolzin · McDavid Bouchard · Mukhamadullin | Danielson · Arvidsson · Mazur Chiarot · Johansson Postava (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Vasily over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl EDM | 138 | 10 | |
| Connor McDavid EDM | 138 | 10 | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM | 127 | 10 | |
| Mattias Ekholm EDM | 113 | 10 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 33 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats