Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 54?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals26 × 3+78
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points10 × 0.5+5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots128 × 0.1+12.8
- PIM49 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1198 × 0.01+12
- total131 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242131 = 54/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 131 points is 54 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 8.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.9/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 23.1% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (2 shots before this season) — that's 2.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.3%, worth PD +3.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Schenn 16.7%, Heineman 7.7%, Schaefer 8.1%, DeAngelo 5.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:18 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 26 | 21 | 47 | — | 46 | — | 4 | — | 14:38 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 01:11 | PP | Goal | Eklund (Schenn, Schaefer) → 2-1 | Schenn · Palat · Pageau · Duclair · Horvat · Holmstrom · Eklund Pelech · Schaefer | Dellandrea · Smith · Celebrini · Graf · Misa Orlov · Trouba · Nurse · Pohlkamp Askarov (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 11:54 | EV | Goal | Eklund (DeAngelo, Schenn) → 4-2 | Schenn · Palat · Pageau · Duclair · Heineman · Eklund Pelech · DeAngelo · Stanley · Schaefer | Meier · Bratt · Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Hughes Allen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CAR | |||||
| P2 05:44 | EV | Assist | Schenn (Eklund, Kessel) → 2-2 | Schenn · Heineman · Eklund Kessel · Schaefer | Hall · Jankowski · Jarvis Gostisbehere · Slavin · Chatfield · Valimaki Bussi (G) |
| P2 17:13 | EV | Goal | Eklund (Schenn, Heineman) → 3-3 | Schenn · Cizikas · MacLean · Chaffee · Heineman · Eklund Mayfield · Pelech · DeAngelo · Kessel | Hall · Jankowski · Martinook · Robinson · Kotkaniemi · Jarvis Gostisbehere · Slavin · Walker · Miller Bussi (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | |||||
| P1 16:36 | EV | Assist | Schaefer (Heineman, Eklund) → 1-1 | Schenn · Cizikas · MacLean · Chaffee · Heineman · Eklund Mayfield · DeAngelo · Stanley · Schaefer | Trenin · Kaprizov · Yurov · Shabanov Bogosian · Brodin · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Victor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn NYI | 116 | 10 | |
| Emil Heineman NYI | 73 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 65 | 10 | |
| Tony DeAngelo NYI | 56 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats